Way back in October I promised that, at some point, the Milwaukee Bucks would be fully healthy. Well, my promise has yet to come to fruition, but I’m working on it!
Anyway, back then, I tried to make sense of the Bucks’ rotation when it was eventually going to be fully healthy. I can’t say I was wrong with my thoughts at the time, but they don’t matter anymore since the players in said rotation have changed.
After reportedly planning to sign Jevon Carter, the Milwaukee Bucks are left with one rotation spot and not a lot of options to fill it so, it’s safe to say the roster, more or less, is what it is at this point. That means this prediction for what the rotation will look like, specifically come playoff time, will have more weight to it and I can actually be criticized for it if I’m wrong! Yay!
Updated Milwaukee Bucks rotation when fully healthy
In the first iteration of this, I essentially grouped the rotation players into tiers from starters to key reserves to deep bench guys. I mentioned the even deeper bench guys, but they aren’t as much of a factor.
I’ll do the same here. Sandro Mamukelashvili and Lindell Wigginton won’t see many minutes outside of garbage time. Wigginton has been useful without George Hill and could still be until he returns, but now with the addition of Carter, it seems less likely. Mamukelashvili’s minutes were already limited when the Bucks only had two bigs and in this scenario, they have all four, so his minutes are cooked.
Now that we got that out of the way, the fully healthy starters are easy to map out too.
- Jrue Holiday
- Grayson Allen
- Khris Middleton
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Brook Lopez
So the big difference between this rotation and my last crack at it is that Allen is firmly set in as a starting guard with Donte DiVincenzo no longer in the picture. I like DiVincenzo more as a defender, but Allen’s still solid and is a better overall offensive player. I’m excited to see how he fares in the playoffs. Expect 30 or so minutes, leaning closer to 35 in the postseason.
Lopez’s health has become the biggest question since then as well. Ya know, just a little back surgery, nothing crazy. Although I am assuming full health, it’s fair to assume that Lopez could be slightly limited in his return. Depending on how he looks, it’s fair to assume he’ll be in the 20-to 25-minute range to start. In a perfect world, he’ll be able to hit that 30-minute plateau because he’ll be looking more like himself. Incredibly nervous times ahead!
Oh, right, the big three. Yeah, there are no questions about their minutes. They’ll play a ton in the playoffs when they need them most.
Things get more interesting when we shift to the key reserves.
- Bobby Portis
- Pat Connaughton
- GAP
- George Hill
- Serge Ibaka
Changes here are no DiVincenzo, the addition of Ibaka, and I’m less confident in Hill. Getting the top two out of the way, Portis and Connaughton will be regular rotation players regardless of the matchup.
Connaughton has been one of the best reserves in the entire league, Portis has been very good as a starter, and shifting back to the bench would give it a much-needed scoring punch. In a tight playoff series, where the rotations shrink, they’ll see minutes in the high 20s, dipping into the 30s.
The two old dudes, Hill and Ibaka, aren’t as stable.
Hill has the edge because of his ball-handling and defense. Push comes to shove, Hill will be in the rotation if he’s healthy. He still has the highest individual net rating in the league and if they keep winning his minutes by a lot, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be out there. His shooting was also trending up before he missed games, so that’s even more encouraging.
If Lopez ends up looking like himself, I’m not sure what Ibaka’s role looks like. They’ve asked him to do a lot of what they’d ask of Lopez to do on both ends, but it’s not at the same level. But we can’t assume Lopez is going to be himself at any point, so Ibaka remains in the key reserve tier because of that.
We have a new tier added for this version. They aren’t key reserves, but they also aren’t deep enough on the bench to be deep reserves. They are… The Grab Bag of Mystery!
- Wesley Matthews
- DeAndre’ Bembry
Because I’m weird, this is the most interesting part of the rotation.
Both of these guys could play in the playoffs in spurts for the Milwaukee Bucks, but there’s a question about each. Oddly enough, it’s about shooting for both of them.
Matthews has been a very good shooter for his entire career and that’s how things started for him this season too. For whatever reason, it has absolutely fallen off a cliff and he’s under 20 percent in his last 15 games. His defense is still there, but if opposing defenses won’t guard him then it’s time to take a seat, old man.
Bembry has shot the ball well (on low volume) this season, despite being a bad shooter for his career. The popular figure to point out is that he’s shooting 55 percent from the corners this season. It’s 22 total attempts, let’s pump the brakes. However, if he can keep shooting relatively well from the corners, then there’s a chance he can move closer to a key reserve role because of his defensive versatility. Seriously, keep him in the corners. He’s shooting 25 percent on above the break 3s the last two seasons.
Finally, we have the deep bench guys. They have an outside shot at minutes, but something would need to go wrong for them to play in the playoffs.
- Jevon Carter
- Jordan Nwora
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo
These three names are closer to the Mamukelashvili/Wigginton tier than the key reserve tier, but they all do something that can be useful and will have opportunities down the stretch. Thanasis will have his role as the energy guy for a few minutes or at the end of a half to try to draw an offensive foul, but he’s deep in the Milwaukee Bucks’ bench.
Nwora has steadied himself a bit. If he can rein himself in and continue to be a catch-and-shoot guy, then he could find some minutes down the stretch (he’s out in the playoffs though).
Carter needs to hit shots to stay on the floor. His defense, aggressiveness, and physicality will be an asset but if he can’t hit shots, then he’ll be stapled to the bench come playoff time. Even if he can hit shots as he did with the Phoenix Suns, they still had him only playing garbage time during their run last year. Something would have to go very wrong for Carter to see playoff minutes of significance.
There are still plenty of questions that need to be answered down the stretch for key parts of the Milwaukee Bucks’ rotation so the last 22 games certainly won’t lack for intrigue.