Basketball-reference predicting regression for Milwaukee Bucks’ starters?

May 1, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
May 1, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports /
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Milwaukee Bucks: Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Khris Middleton, Chicago Bulls: Javonte Green, Alex Caruso
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – APRIL 20 (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Basketball-reference predicting Milwaukee Bucks’ regression: Khris Middleton

By Khris Middleton standards, last season was a bit of a down year efficiency-wise, with Khris being a player that flirts with 50/40/90 splits every season, shooting 44.3/37.3/89.0 in 2021-22 isn’t a bad season, but one Khris Middleton can improve on at least from the field, his free throw percentage was above his career average but field goal percentage and 3-point percentage were below. Similarly to Jrue Holiday, Middleton is barely past 30 (Middleton will be 31 in a few weeks) it’s not like Middleton is over the hill, also when considering his play style it’s not like Middleton relies on physicality that would be potentially affected by getting older anyways.

Per 36 minutes in 2021-22 Khris Middleton averaged 22.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 3.2 turnovers and 2.7 fouls. Pretty solid numbers for the Bucks number two option. That was good enough to earn Khris his second career All-Star nod and his absence in the Boston Celtics postseason series was very impactful.

Going forward however, Middleton did not escape basketball-reference’s predicted regression for the Milwaukee Bucks’ starters. Middleton’s predicted stats for 2022-23 are as follows: 22.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 3.0 turnovers and 2.7 fouls, shooting splits of 45.7 percent on field goals, 38.4 percent from the 3-point line and 88.9 percent from the free throw line.

So while I can agree with the predicted improvement on field goals and 3-point attempts and the tiny dip in free throw percentage as those three numbers all reflect movement toward his career average, it is difficult to imagine a scenario this upcoming season where Khris Middleton improves his efficiency but does less with it. Yes the Bucks added Joe Ingles but given his injury and Middleton’s importance to this Bucks team, it is even harder to imagine Khris playing a smaller role for the Bucks this upcoming season.