Predicting Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2023-24 stat line for the Bucks

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 04 (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 04 (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

As Giannis Antetokounmpo enters into his 11th NBA season, everyone has pretty much become accustomed to the numbers he puts up. Every year, it seems he winds up averaging around 30 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists per game on very good efficiency, and he is a perennial MVP candidate.

Last season, Giannis averaged a career-high in points per game (31.1) to go along with 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists, and he put up these numbers while being only 56th in the NBA in minutes played per game. Nobody in the NBA is better statistically on a per-minute basis than Giannis, but the question is, will those minutes start to increase under a new head coach?

Another note about Giannis last season was that his efficiency dipped slightly. His true shooting percentage (60.5) and effective field goal percentage (57.2), although still very good, were the lowest they had been since 2017. His free throw percentage also dropped off significantly (from 72.2 to 64.5), which was a disappointing sign after he had improved from the line in each of the prior three seasons.

But upon further examination, it seems that some of those efficiency problems may be more due to health circumstances. In the first three months of the season, when Khris Middleton was basically absent the entire time due to injury and Giannis was also banged up, Giannis shot just 52.4 percent from the field and 24.5 percent from three, and he had a 58.4 true shooting percentage and a 54.1 effective field goal percentage… all of these numbers are well below his standard.

Once Giannis and Khris both came back from injury on January 23rd and the team was much closer to full health, Giannis looked like Giannis again. From that point on, he shot 59.2 percent from the field and 31.9 percent from three with a 63.4 true shooting percentage and a 61.2 effective field goal percentage… much more like it.

This resurgence back to elite efficiency in the second half of the season is a great sign, and with a full offseason of rest now and hopefully a healthy Khris Middleton for the whole season, it is safe to expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to put up elite efficiency numbers once again.

Giannis could definitely play slightly more minutes per game than he did under Mike Budenholzer, but it likely won’t be a significant increase since he seems to value his rest and the long term. Assuming he plays a couple more minutes per game, here is a prediction for his stats:

Predicting Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2023-24 stat line for the Bucks

Stat Prediction: 30.6 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 57 percent field goal shooting, 30 percent 3-point shooting, 68 percent free throw shooting

This predicts a slight increase in assists and a slight decrease in points from last year with Khris Middleton now healthy. Giannis had the highest usage percentage in the league (and of his career) last season, and the Bucks likely want his usage lowered a bit so everything isn’t always running through him. More Khris Middleton isolations and Giannis used off-ball may take the ball out of his hands a bit compared to last season, but it could help him be more efficient.

Expect Giannis’ field goal percentage to be in the higher 50s, his 3-point percentage to remain near 30 percent, and his free throw percentage to go back up a little bit. A new coaching staff should hopefully be more innovative and help generate some better looks for him.

The Bucks will once again be surrounding Giannis with several shooters, which should lend its way to solid assist numbers for him. The addition of Malik Beasley this summer adds another strong shooting presence, and Giannis will always generate plenty of open looks from outside with his gravity. Bucks players also shot 45.4 percent from three off Giannis passes in the second part of the season after Giannis and Khris returned from injury, a stretch where he averaged 7.3 assists per 36 minutes. If teammates can continue to capitalize off the open looks he creates, Giannis could average above six assists per game for the first time in his career.

All in all, Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to put up the same great numbers that have become normal for him each year, but the more important numbers will be shown in his efficiency from both the field and the free throw line. Expect him to continue the elite efficiency that he had in the second half of last season and to get his free throw shooting back closer to 70 percent.

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After a full offseason of rest, it’s safe to predict Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a big season and once again be a top MVP candidate in 2023-24.