Behind the Bucks Pass
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The Milwaukee Bucks Are Actually Worse Than Their Record Suggests

By Ti Windisch

Jan 22, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) walks back up the court after the Bucks turn the ball over against the Houston Rockets during the second half at the Toyota Center. The Rockets defeat the Bucks 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 22, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) walks back up the court after the Bucks turn the ball over against the Houston Rockets during the second half at the Toyota Center. The Rockets defeat the Bucks 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Surprisingly enough, the Milwaukee Bucks are overachieving according to their expected record and advanced statistics.

It’s pretty unusual to write that a Milwaukee Bucks team currently sitting at 20-32 is overachieving. Considering the Bucks were seen by some as one of the best four teams in the Eastern Conference their abysmal season is a disappointment, not a pleasant surprise.

Here’s the thing–the Bucks are actually even worse than they appear. With solid play to end the season in Minnesota and New Orleans, the Milwaukee Bucks could end up as one of the worst five teams in the NBA.

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They’re actually deserving of that title right now, although they only have the seventh-worst winning percentage in the Association. Somehow the Bucks have actually been worse than their 20-32 record suggests.

According to Basketball-Reference, Milwaukee has an expected record of 17-35. That’s bad enough for 26th in the NBA, meaning the Bucks would be drafting fifth overall if the lottery went as expected.

The formula for expected wins is a fairly complicated one, but looking at how the Bucks compare to the rest of the NBA in other stats makes it fairly obvious that the estimation isn’t far off.

Milwaukee is in the bottom ten in the NBA in all of the following categories: offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, points scored per game, pace, turnovers per game, rebounds per game, personal fouls per game, points allowed off of turnovers per game, second chance points allowed per game, and fast break points allowed per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks are bad at everything. The few bright spots are field goal percentage (which is boosted thanks to Milwaukee relying on two-point baskets, meaning they get fewer points but a higher percentage than teams that shoot the three) and assists per game.

Outside of those very faint silver linings, most team statistics hate Milwaukee. Some growing pains make sense considering the youth and relatively recent construction of this core, nobody expected this season to hurt this badly.

Expectations are certainly partly to blame for that. The Minnesota Timberwolves (who are actually better than the Bucks according to expected record) are currently 16-36, and there isn’t much panic in Minnesota.

The signing of Greg Monroe is the big difference there. Minnesota smartly only targeted veteran free agents who basically serve as tutors to their young core. The Timberwolves weren’t going to make a push for a Monroe type player because the front office in Minnesota knows they’re not going to be good yet.

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Milwaukee either got legitimately caught up in the hype of the pre-All-Star break 2015 Bucks, just needed a big momentum push to ensure the new arena got built, or figured they might as well use their cap space for something instead of simply waiting to extend their young core.

Whichever was the case, the Bucks bit off more than they could chew by signing a big-name player to a short-term deal on a team built to win in the future.

Now all their massive free agent splash is doing is sinking Milwaukee’s chances at getting a top three pick in 2016. Trading Greg Monroe shouldn’t be seen as a must for Milwaukee, but considering with him the Bucks are one of the five worst teams in the NBA his contributions clearly aren’t invaluable.

That’s not on Monroe, who has been everything advertised and more in Milwaukee. But the fit here isn’t right, both strategically and chronologically.

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Considering how bad the Milwaukee Bucks have been, and that they’re even worse than the standings show, it’s easy to see why the front office is willing to gamble and trade just about anyone in Milwaukee.

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