Why Isn’t Anybody Talking About Jerryd Bayless?

It sure has been a great year for Jared Dudley. He’s been the most vocal Buck all season (his latest blurb was promising not to play if the BMO Harris Bradley Center was not sold out for the Bucks’ game on Sunday) and had thusly been covered more than pretty much any of his teammates (Giannis might be the only exception, but he’s a national treasure).

He’s also had a very good year statistically after a rough 2013-14 season. Dudley is shooting 43 percent from three-point land and a blistering 50 percent from the field. His per 36 numbers represent how solid J-Duds has been coming off of the bench (usually) for Milwaukee this season: Dudley is averaging 12.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per 36 this season.

But what if I told you the other Buck Jerryd was having a season almost as good as Dudley’s? It’s true.

Jerryd Bayless has been slightly less efficient but slightly more productive than Jared Dudley this season. Bayless is shooting 45.5 percent from the field (but just 33.8 percent from three) so far this season, but the real surprise comes from his per 36 numbers.

Bayless is actually beating Dudley (almost) across the board, with 13.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists per 36. Their Player Efficiency Ratings are very close as well: 13.43 for Bayless and 13.95 for Dudley.

If they’re playing at a fairly similar level this season, why is everybody focused on Dudley? Well, there’s two main reasons. The first is that Milwaukee actually acquired a first-round pick from the Los Angeles Clippers just to take Dudley off of their hands. That makes it very note-worthy that he’s performing well this season, especially considering L.A. really needs a player with Dudley’s skill-set at the wing.

The second reason is that Dudley is just a charismatic guy. From coining the nickname Milwaukee Grinders for the team to his excellent appearance on The Lowe Post (if you haven’t listened to that yet go do that now. This article will be here when you get back, I promise) to his hilarious comments in the face of the overall sadness of Brandon Knight being traded:

"“They are playing for the playoffs, great training staff, and I’m telling you, the living in Phoenix is the best thing you can have. It is so cheap and you can live like a king. I told him he’ll have a five-bedroom house with a theater room and a pool. Don’t feel sorry for Brandon Knight.”"

All this is great for Jared Dudley. But the one downside is that Jerryd Bayless is getting greatly overlooked by both NBA and Bucks fans in general. So I’m going to use the rest of this piece to show Bayless some love.

Jerryd Bayless is only 26, but he’s been all over in his NBA career already. Milwaukee is his seventh different stint with his sixth team (Bayless has played for Portland, New Orleans, Toronto, Memphis, Boston, Memphis again and finally Milwaukee) making him the most well-traveled Buck.

Bayless is somewhat rare in that he has never started an awful lot of games in a season for an NBA team. Most role players are usually thrust into an extended spot in the starting lineup due to an unfortunate injury or unexpected trade at least once, but Bayless has never started more than 19 games in a single season. I don’t think it’s an indictment of Bayless as much as it’s a somewhat odd coincidence.

Interestingly enough, the one season Bayless actually started more than any other (ratio-wise, not by total starts. He started eleven out of 31 games in Toronto in the 2011-2012 season before missing the remainder of that season due to injury) he excelled. Bayless posted his highest-ever PER that season (17.7) and also his highest per 36 scoring average with 18 points.

If not for a few unfortunate injuries that season, Bayless may very well be a starting point guard somewhere in the association right now. He sure seemed more than capable enough of it.

In fact, the numbers support that Bayless is a much better starter than bench player. When starting, Bayless has a better PER, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage, true shooting percentage, and offensive rating. So essentially every advanced stat possible indicates that Bayless plays better when he gets a starting opportunity.

One other interesting note: although one would assume these better numbers come from more chances to shoot that’s actually not the case. Bayless’ usage rate (the number of possessions that end as a result of Bayless either shooting or committing a turnover) goes up just 1.1% when he starts.

That means that Bayless distributes the ball pretty much the same whether he is starting or coming off of the bench, so his play style doesn’t really change. He doesn’t play hero ball as a starter and pass more as a reserve or vice versa, he’s just much better when he starts.

If he doesn’t play differently, then why does he play better as a starter? If you ask me (and you have asked me by reading this article, so thanks for asking!), it’s because Bayless needs a little time to get in rhythm during games. Bayless is a microwave: it’ll take a little time but eventually he gets hot.

Every. Single. Time. And once again, the statistics prove it.

Every single one of Bayless’ advanced stats gets better the more minutes he plays. Basketball-Reference.com (the basketball junkie’s easiest way to kill an hour or five) has splits for the minutes a player plays per game: 40+. 30-39, 20-29, 10-19 and 0-9.

Bayless’ field goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage and offensive rating all increase steadily as his minutes go up with no exceptions. He literally gets better as the game goes on, every time. Like clockwork. This isn’t true for every player. I checked that too.

Former Milwaukee point guard Brandon Knight is a good example because he was asked to lead the Bucks for a season and a half. Knight took a lot of clutch shots and made quite a few game-winners for Milwaukee. His numbers steadily improve as well, until the 40+ category where they drop off across the board.

Khris Middleton (another Buck scorer) is an interesting case as well. His best shooting percentages (except for three-point percentage) actually occur within the 20-29 minute bracket. This suggests Middleton might be better off not playing so many minutes in games, because he will be slightly less effective as time goes on.

So what does this all mean?

Basically, it means start Jerryd Bayless. Especially this season.

“I feel most comfortable with the ball in my hands, and I’ve been given a great opportunity to run the team a lot of times.” -Bayless

The Knight trade has thrown Milwaukee’s offense into flux for the time being (in the three games since the Bucks have failed to break 90 points at all). Why not give Jerryd Bayless another shot to lead a team as their point guard? According to Bayless himself, he cherishes the opportunity to run the offense.

Let Michael Carter-Williams come off of the bench for this season so he can truly settle into Milwaukee’s system and learn to slow down from Jason Kidd. He’s still a little hurt anyway. The worst thing that could happen is Bayless does not follow the pattern and plays poorly. Simply let MCDub start in that scenario and let Bayless return to his combo-guard bench role.

But if Bayless excels and manages to have a great end of the season, who knows? The Bucks could sell high as they did with Knight, and net another draft pick or young player to help complete this much-faster-than-anticipated rebuild. Or simply run with Bayless as the point guard for the near-future in Milwaukee.

All I’m saying is that the benefits surely seem to out-weigh the risks in this case. Give Jerryd his shot. If he plays enough minutes, he’ll probably make it.

Next: No Offense, But the Point Guard Situation is Just Fine