Money’s Money: How Much Will Khris Middleton Make?

Feb 27, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) drives against Los Angeles Lakers guard Wayne Ellington (2) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

I see questions like these ones on Twitter a LOT.

“What will the Bucks have to pay to keep Khris?”

“Can my (insert team here) steal Middleton away from Milwaukee?”

“What’s the most the Bucks would pay to keep Khris Middleton?”

There are three reasons people keep asking these questions:

1. He’s really really good.
2. He’s really young and will probably only get better as his career goes on.
3. His max isn’t as much money as you’d think.

The third reason is probably the most obvious, but it’s something a lot of people seem to ignore. Max contracts differ depending on the player’s experience. Khris is going to have his contract come up with only three seasons played. That means his max contract is 25 percent of the salary cap. Sound pricey? This season that comes out to about $14 million.

But that was last season. This season the cap is due to raise (as it has every season for the last few decades), so maybe the max will be too much. This projection from NBC Sports has the 2015-16 NBA Salary Cap at $63,065,000.

Doing a little math magic, Khris’ max salary under that cap would be just under $16 million, $15.7 mil to be exact (keep in mind these numbers are all based off of estimates, they are very likely to be slightly off. Also this is one of the first times I’ve really tried to go in-depth with the CBA and figure these things out, but I should be relatively close).

That’s just the first year however. Since Middleton has played three consecutive seasons without being traded or waiver (pending an insane personnel move in the next few months) his salary could go up 7.5 percent each season.

So if he signed a four-year max deal  with Milwaukee the salaries would be $15.7, $16.9, $18.2 and around $19.6 (those are all in millions by the way. John Hammond is a pretty good GM but I don’t think he can sign Khris Middleton to a four-year $70 million contract).

That looks like a lot, I know. And it is. It resembles Klay Thompson’s contract a lot (they’re both around four years, $70 million). Khris’ would actually be higher than Klay’s. More on these two guys in a bit. But would that contract really be expensive to sign a player of Middleton’s caliber?

Mar 4, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) drives in against the Golden State Warriors during the first quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Signing Khris for a max contract this offseason would make him a Buck in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. In 2017 (the year when the cap is supposed to dramatically increase due to the new cable deal), the salary cap could shoot up to almost $90 million. Khris’ $16.9 million cap hit goes from a quarter of the cap to just 20 percent of it, leaving just about four fifths of the cap (or over $60 million) for the Bucks to resign their own free agents or go after some new additions.

It just so happens most people believe Milwaukee will not truly be able to do anything resembling contending for a title for another two years or so. Right around 2017. Even if Khris’ contract eats up kind of a lot of room for the first two years of it being signed, it won’t be too bad of a cap hit by the time the Bucks are actually getting ready to go after a championship.

It would still be pretty pricey for a guy who averages under 13 points a game though, right?

Here’s the thing though: the Bucks probably wouldn’t need to pay that much. If Middleton leaves Milwaukee, he loses his Bird rights. So instead of a 7.5 percent increase from year to year, he could only sign a contract that goes up five percent annually. That max would be more like a four-year deal that paid out $67 million. The deal would pay Middleton $15.7, $16.5, $17.3 and $18.2 million over the same four years.

So that’s the biggest deal the Bucks would have to match to keep Khris, because he’s a restricted free agent. That means the Bucks have the right of first refusal, so basically any team can offer Middleton a contract but when they do the Bucks have three days to match that contract and essentially automatically resign him. Klay Thompson got the max the Warriors could give him for a few reasons.

Klay was a first round pick (which doesn’t matter too much here, but usually being picked in the lottery is something to hang your hat on as a player, unless you’re Anthony Bennett) who has already set the Golden State Warriors record for all-time three pointers, made an All-Star game and was on the All-Rookie first team in his first season.

Khris Middleton was a late second round draft pick who has done none of those things.

In addition, Klay Thompson scores a lot more. In his rookie season Klay scored 12.5 points per game and has improved on that number each season and is currently averaging 21.8 points per game. Khris Middleton is in his third season and averaging just 12.8 points per game; almost as low as Klay’s rookie season numbers.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

As you can see in the chart above, Klay benefits from simply taking more shots. Khris is actually rebounding and stealing more than Thompson, although Klay does get the edge in assists and blocks. Except for the scoring and number of shots per game however, the two are actually playing at fairly similar levels right now.

Klay and his agent used his accolades and impressive stats (plus the fact that nobody wanted to see him separated from his Splash Brother Steph Curry) as leverage in his negotiations with the Warriors in their contract talks. Klay wanted max money, and those awards and gaudy points per game numbers convinced Golden State to give it to him.

Now of course points per game is not a complete overview of a player’s ability, and lately Khris has been on an absolute tear scoring 30 points in two out of his last three games. But even if he scored 30 every game for the remainder of the season, his average would probably still be less than Thompson’s.

But (luckily for the Bucks’ cap situation) a lot of people in the NBA are still obsessed with standard metrics like points and do not give much (if any) merit to facts drawn from more advanced stats. Like the fact that this season Khris is shooting better from the field and from the three-point line than Klay ever has.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Or that Khris’ offensive rating is the same as Klay’s and his defensive rating is actually better (as seen in the above table), even though he’s almost two years younger (Klay is listed as 24 because he was when he started the season, although he’s now 25. Khris is still just 23) than Klay and thus could potentially get even better as he comes into his prime years.

But this isn’t an article to bash Klay Thompson, don’t get me wrong.

I write about and primarily follow the Bucks, but right now Klay is easily the better player. He scored 37 points in a single quarter this season, which is more than Khris has ever scored in an entire game. He deserves his max contract.

My point is more that I think Khris will also deserve max money when he’s 25, but the Bucks can potentially get him for less than that. It takes a gamble, that’s obvious. But the Bucks should take the gamble. If they can get Khris without paying the smaller max contract of course they’re going to take him, who wouldn’t?

And I doubt Middleton will be able to persuade the Bucks’ front office he deserves over $70 million right now. Potential is nice and all but you have to put up numbers to get paid that much.

But the question I’m more interested in is about the smaller max. Because I could see a richer team than the Bucks throwing it at Khris to try and lure him away from Milwaukee. He’s 23 years old and one of the best shooters and defenders in the league by almost all advanced metrics right now, he just hasn’t been scoring much (until very recently).

Somebody who likes spending money on free agents as opposed to drafting players and who also likes offering contracts that basically dare the other team to spend as much as they can (here’s looking at you two, Daryl Morey and Mark Cuban) might just throw that four-year $67 million offer Khris’ way, or at least one close to it.

And that’s really what this article is about.

Would the Bucks match that offer?

I think the answer is yes. And I think John Hammond answered with a resounding yes before I even asked the question. That’s really what the Brandon Knight trade says. The Bucks added three players that all make less than $4 million next season. Brandon Knight will be making a lot more than that, wherever he ends up playing. So the trade opened up the books to make this contract more possible.

But even more than that, it opened up the offense for Middleton. There’s no way he scores 30 points in a game where Brandon Knight is the point guard. No chance. Knight is a good player and an okay point guard but he took the shots in games he played. Now Khris can take more shots, and he’s showing just how deadly he can be with the opportunity to do so.

It would seem kind of dumb to jettison Knight and clear up that room for Khris, and to then have him thrive in a role as more of a primary scorer, just to let him walk away when the team has the space and the means to keep him.

So I believe that if forced to do so, Milwaukee would indeed sign Khris Middleton to the smaller max contract.

Now keep in mind there is a ton of speculation, estimation and variables at play here. The cap number has not been set yet, Middleton might not garner those big-money offers from any teams, or maybe Milwaukee has a different guy they care more about keeping so they feel they can’t overpay Middleton and lose someone else. Who knows?

But, from all the evidence I can find, I do think Middleton is going to stay a Buck for the next four years no matter what contract offers he gets from other teams. Considering the big salary cap jump that is supposedly incoming, Milwaukee’s lack of efficient scoring outside of Khris, and most importantly his very strong offense and defense this season I would be surprised to see the Bucks let him walk.

And it’s not like the Bucks have surprised anybody with personnel moves lately.

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