Don’t Count Out Ersan Ilyasova Just Yet

Feb 25, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward

(7) drives for the basket ahead of Philadelphia 76ers forward

(39) during the third quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Almost a decade ago, the Milwaukee Bucks were preparing to make their second-round pick in the 2005 NBA Draft. They had already selected one foreign player (Andrew Bogut, from Australia) with the first overall pick, but Milwaukee decided to go international again with the 36th overall pick and select Ersan Ilyasova, a Turkish power forward.

Little did anyone expect that ten years later, the unknown forward out of Turkey would be a productive member on the Bucks during their rebuilding process while Bogut would be jettisoned years earlier in an ultimately meaningless trade (for Milwaukee, that is. Bogut remains an important piece on the contending Golden State Warriors).

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Hell, I know I didn’t. Probably because like Ersan’s current teammates Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker, I was ten years old when Big Ers got drafted. I don’t remember much about that year, except a general excitement about having a seven footer from Australia come to Milwaukee of all places. Or maybe I was just generally excited about being ten. Who knows?

Anyway, back to the point. Ersan is still on the team after the trade deadline despite a sizable portion of Bucks’ fans clamoring for his trade due to his large contract (for about the third consecutive season) and still playing good basketball for Milwaukee. I feel like there would be some way to move Big Ers if the Bucks really wanted to, despite his nearly $8 million a year price tag. I just think the Bucks don’t want to move him.

The thing about Ilyasova that a lot of people don’t seem to remember is that he’s actually pretty good. And also that he used to be really good. In his best season (thus far) back in 2011-12, Ersan averaged 13 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while shooting over 49 percent and 45.5 percent from three. He had a PER that season of over 20! Those are really solid numbers, especially for a second-round pick.

Ilyasova hasn’t been that good since that season, but I don’t think that’s entirely his fault. Ersan has had multiple coaches in the time since, been on a roster that’s been almost constantly in a state of flux, and has also been plagued with a few injuries in that time period.

Although he struggled last season (as do most players on 15 win teams) and logged just 55 games in his lowest PER season since rejoining the Bucks in 2009 (he played in Spain for a few seasons after his rookie year), he has been good in every other season since that breakout 2011-12 campaign.

Consider that the league-average Player Efficiency Rating is always 15, and that Ersan has posted PERs of 20.5, 18.3, 13.8 in the last three seasons and 15.5 so far this season. That means Ers has been an above-average player for three of the last four seasons even though his situation has been unstable at best.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/15/2015.

The above chart (courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com) showcases Ersan’s PER over the course of his career, and a few other useful advanced stats such as his true shooting percentage, offensive, defensive and total win shares (essentially how many wins Ersan’s play at both ends of the court has added to his team). I don’t know if Ers can ever get to the level he was at in 2013 again, but he seems to be steadily improving since his drop-off the season after that one.

Honestly I think the best word to describe Ilyasova moving forward is useful. Although recently he has been starting games for Milwaukee again, I don’t see that as his role in the future with this team. But having him off of the bench as a forward in either slot (Ers is 6’9″ and not super athletic, but he has logged minutes at both small and power forward this season) who can shoot from all over is, well, useful.

In a league where shooting threes and spacing is becoming more and more utilized, Ersan is a pretty valuable piece. He’s a solid enough defender who can rebound the ball and score from anywhere on the court on offense. He’s a great pick and roll player because he’s good at catching and shooting, but also big enough to set a solid screen.

Although he hasn’t gotten entirely back to form yet (especially from three-point territory), Ers has been shooting the ball well this year. He’s making 47 percent of his field goals and a decent 35.1 percent of his threes so far this season, and has been especially good lately, as seen in the table below.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/15/2015.

As you can see Ersan has been on a hot streak outside of a tough shooting night against Utah, including four double-doubles in his last eleven games. Hopefully he can continue to improve and work on getting back to his full potential with the Bucks. It’d certainly help Milwaukee in the playoffs.

Personally I think Ilyasova could be helping Milwaukee in the playoffs for years to come. Although he was drafted in 2005 he’s still just 27 years old and definitely has a lot of productive years left. He’s expensive right now, but in 2017 his current contract is up and he can be re-signed for less money.

I think showing other players around the league that Milwaukee is a franchise that takes care of loyal players is important for the team’s image. Of course Ersan is not a high-profile superstar like Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan, but he’s still a relevant player who’s been around the league for a while.

In fact he’s the only Buck currently on the roster to be with the team for the entire 2010s thus far, and I sincerely hope he stays with Milwaukee for the rest of the decade.

Keep doing your thing, Big Ers.

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