Greg Monroe: Projected Passing Improvements with the Bucks

Greg Monroe is an extremely skilled player and arguably the biggest free agent signee in Milwaukee Bucks history. By now we have heard how much of a beast he is scoring in the post, how awesome he is at rebounding, how he is a deft passer, and how his defense is not the best.

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Monroe ranked 7th in the NBA in post-up points per game last season with 6.0. He had more post-up points per game than the entire Bucks team last year (Milwaukee had 5.2 post-up points per game). That single handedly should improve Milwaukee’s offense in a meaningful way.

Milwaukee had an amazing defense last year, yet they had one glaring weakness: rebounding. Monroe will help in that department too. He collects rebounds at a much higher clip than the man he is replacing, the recently traded Zaza Pachulia. Greg had a defensive rebound percentage of 25.1 while Zaza’s was 19.9 (which was the highest on the team).

Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe (10) attempts to shoot the ball as

Al Horford

(15) defends. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I think a topic that has not been widely discussed is Greg Monroe’s passing ability. People seem to be very excited about Moose’s scoring and rebounding (as they should be) but forget that he is an elite passing big man. I’d say he is easily a top 7 passing center in the league today and his peers certainly include the elite passing centers in the game like Marc and Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Andrew Bogut, Al Horford, and Tim Duncan. I decided since this is Greg’s peer group that I would compare him to these players based on assisting statistics only. I wanted to see if Moose truly belonged in this group of excellent passing centers and if I could project some future assist numbers for him.

I chose to use the Gasol brothers, Noah, Bogut, Horford, and Duncan because they all had many similar characteristics to Monroe. First, all of these players have played center for a majority of their careers. Duncan, Pau, and Greg have spent some time at power forward but they are all currently listed as centers. I excluded Zaza and DeMarcus Cousins. Both of those guys had good assist numbers for centers last year, but early in their career they had poor assist numbers and after performing statistical analysis on their assist stats through the first five seasons of their career, they proved to be outliers from the above group.

I chose to look at assist statistics through each player’s first five seasons because that is how long Greg has been in the league.

STATS THROUGH FIRST 5 SEASONS OF CAREER

Assist to

Turnover RatioAssists per

36 minutesAssist

PercentageUsage RateAndrew Bogut1.1872.712.319

Marc Gasol

1.4252.913.118.1Pau Gasol1.1613.116.425.1

Joakim Noah

1.2532.410.215.4Tim Duncan0.9652.815.228Al Horford1.5412.61217.5

Averages1.2552.7513.220.517

Greg Monroe1.0762.612.621.9Monre’s difference

-0.179

-0.15

-0.6

1.383

According to basketball-reference.com assist percentage is “an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor” while usage percentage is “an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.” If you look at these numbers you can see that Greg is just below average for assist to turnover ratio, assists per 36 minutes, and assist percentage while his usage rate is just above average.

San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (left) and shooting guard

Manu Ginobili

(20).

I decided first to look at usage rate. I wanted to determine if any of these players in their first five seasons were used significantly more or less than the others. I figured players who had a significantly higher or lower usage rate would take away some of the statistical power of what I was looking at since they had many more (or less) touches than their peers. Neither Tim Duncan (28) or Joakim Noah (15.4) happened to be outliers so I continued with my analysis.

Next I looked at the assist numbers. Since these players had similar usage rates then comparing their assist stats would be a worthwhile exercise. I used the difference of Monroe’s assist averages from his peers over their first five seasons in the NBA and then added that value to the averages of those same players in their sixth and seventh seasons in the league. I did this to create a somewhat scientific guess as to what we can likely expect from Monroe as a passer in the two seasons he will surely be a Buck (he has a player option in the third year of his contract).

Year 6

6TH SEASON

Assist to

Turnover RatioAssists per

36 minutesAssist

PercentageUsage RateAndrew Bogut1.0482.110.419.6Marc Gasol1.9373.917.721.7Pau Gasol1.2413.417.725.3Joakim Noah1.4893.917.617.2Tim Duncan1.2743.919.528Al Horford1.6333.115.321.8

Averages1.4373.38316.36722.267

Monre’s difference-0.179-0.15-0.61.383Monroe’s projected

1.258

3.233

15.767

23.65

Last season (his fifth in the league) Moose averaged 2.4 assists per 36 minutes. Next season his assist numbers should jump up pretty significantly to around 3.4 per 36 minutes. At the same time his assist percentage should rise from 11.7 last season to about 15.8 this upcoming season. All while his assist to turnover ratio increases from 0.953 to about 1.258.

If these statistical improvements are reached Monroe would probably be a top five passing center in the league. An increase in assist to turnover ratio would indicate Greg is making smarter decisions and is coughing up the ball less, leading to more buckets for Milwaukee. Zaza was a great facilitator for the offense last year, but Greg at these projected numbers would blow him away and make the offense hum much better.

Milwaukee Bucks guard

O.J. Mayo

(00). Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

These feasible passing improvements could really help the Bucks with one of their biggest offensive issues going into next season, spacing. In the most likely starting lineup to begin the season, it looks like Khris Middleton and OJ Mayo will be the 3 point shooters. That should give the Bucks some spacing, but with great passing from the high and low post the ball will move more crisply. Defenders will get caught out of position more often and leave guys open for shots or drives they have a better chance of making. Shooting is the best cure for spacing woes but passing is a great secondary solution.

When Jabari Parker returns it should relegate Mayo to the bench and the spacing will lessen. Great passing by the entire team will be even more vital. Luckily Michael Carter-Williams and Monroe should be two of the best passers at their respective positions. Hopefully that will be enough to cure some potentially scary spacing issues.

Year 7

7TH SEASON

Assist to

Turnover RatioAssists per

36 minutesAssist

PercentageUsage RateAndrew Bogut1.2913.113.720.6Marc Gasol1.7444.119.724.6Pau Gasol1.7013.215.222.1Joakim Noah2.2225.526.418.7Tim Duncan1.164317.429.7Al Horford1.1882.915.224.7

Averages1.5523.63317.93323.4

Monre’s difference-0.179-0.15-0.61.383Monroe’s projected

1.372

3.483

17.333

24.783

In year two with Milwaukee, Greg could again be improving his assist to turnover ratio, improve his assists per 36 minutes by 0.25 (from the previous year), and increase his assist percentage. Again these would all be tremendous improvements to see and would keep Moose a top 5 passing center in the league. He could possibly be vying for the top 3 with about 3.5 assists per 36 minutes. That would put him in very elite company.

Final Note

Monroe is changing teams which has the potential to reduce his likely assist numbers. The lack of chemistry with his new teammates could cause him to have a lower assist to turnover ratio to start the season and lower assists per 36 numbers.

None of the other players I compared Greg to changed teams going into their sixth season. I thought that the change of teams would be offset by the fact that Greg played out of position his last two years in Detroit and that hurt his assist numbers mightily. He had his two best passing seasons while he played center and now that he is moving back to that position in Milwaukee his assist numbers should naturally improve. Even though it is hard to quantify those two variables, I chose to have them cancel each other out.

Now these players all had different teams around them, different coaches/coaching styles influencing them, and different ways they pass the ball through their first five seasons in the league and beyond. Because of these, and many other variables, my conclusions on what will happen with Monroe’s passing numbers are not to be guaranteed. I believe, however, this is a good forecast of what his assist statistics will look like in the next two seasons. If these forecasts prove to be true then Bucks fans have something to look forward to.

Next: Who Might The Milwaukee Bucks Sign In 2016's Free Agency?

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