Bucks vs. Cavaliers: 2015-16 Season/Playoff Forecast

The Milwaukee Bucks are on their way up. They are a young team that many casual fans and experts alike are picking to send someone home in the playoffs. A lot of hype surrounds this team, and a lot of it is justified.

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The Bucks are building something in the present while also holding to the mantra “Own the Future.” Every team on the way up has one big issue to face, they have to deal with the team that is already on the mountain top. In the Eastern Conference for the last five years one player has been the key for his team getting to the top, he is LeBron James.

Getting over the LeBron hump is no easy feat. The Bucks have a variety of young talent but there is always a chance that LeBron could beat them with four Matthew Dellavedova‘s on his side, LeBron is just that good.

The scariest thing about the Cavaliers is that LeBron isn’t their one-trick-pony, but the leader of a really talented and newly experienced bunch that will never be underdogs in any game they play. The roster in Cleveland is stacked.

If the Bucks ever want to make a championship run they will have to overcome a true juggernaut, and a player who does not miss the Finals. I want to look at how the Bucks roster compares to the Cavs roster and theorize how the Bucks might try to compete with the Cavs this year.

Finally, I want to look at how the two teams would fare in an Eastern Conference playoff matchup.

Rosters

Milwaukee Bucks

Starting Lineup – PG: Michael Carter-Williams, SG: Khris Middleton, SF: Giannis Antetokoumnpo, PF: Jabari Parker, C: Greg Monroe

Key Bench Players – G: Grevies Vasquez, G: Jerryd Bayless, G: O.J. Mayo, G: Rashad Vaughn, F: Chris Copeland, C: John Henson, C: Miles Plumlee

Coach – Jason Kidd

Cleveland Cavaliers

Starting Lineup – PG: Kyrie Irving, SG: Iman Shumpert, SF: LeBron James, PF: Kevin Love, C: Timofey Mozgov

Key Bench Players – G: Mo Williams, G: Matthew Dellavedova, G: J.R. Smith, F: James Jones, F: Tristian Thompson (not actually signed yet but I’m assuming a deal will be made), C: Anderson Varejao

Coach – David Blatt

Analysis

The way the starting lineups matchup is the key here. The Bucks have a long, defensive-minded starting lineup while the Cavs have an athletic, offensive minded starting lineup. Very few teams have individual players who can guard both LeBron and Kyrie at the same time, but the Bucks seem to have that with MCW and Giannis. The Bucks may be one of the only teams in the league that could give the Cavs issues when they are trying to score.

Nov 9, 2013; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving (2) and Philadelphia 76ers point guard Michael Carter-Williams (1) shake hands. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The point guard matchup would be a battle of two young guys in Michael Carter-Williams and Kyrie Irving. Kyrie is already the much more established player in the league. MCW, however, has a lot of length and is a very good defender of opposing point guards. Kyrie had a offensive rating of 117 points per 100 possessions last year while Michael had a defensive rating of 101 points per 100 possessions last year with Milwaukee.

Obviously, something would have to give in this matchup. I would assume that Kyrie would still get his points but he would be less efficient doing so and would score a little less per game. I think MCW would score at a regular rate for himself as Kyrie is a pretty average defender.

The shooting guard matchup would pit Khris Middleon against Iman Shumpert. This is one of two position battles where the Bucks have an advantage over the Cavaliers. Khris has two inches of height on Shump and is a much better three-and-D player. Khris shoots just over 40 percent from deep while Iman shoots just under 35 percent.

The difference here is Shump has much better players around him which gives him more open looks while Khris has constant pressure from hands in his face. This makes Khris a much better shooter overall.

Last year both Middleton and Shumpert had above average defensive ratings at 102 and 104, respectively. Middleton, however, had an above average offensive rating while Shumpert’s was below average at 109 and 99, respectively. I would expect Khris to score just a bit lower than his average rate while Iman would score less than average.

The small forward matchup would feature Giannis Antetokoumnpo against the King, LeBron James. Bucks fans want this to be a really exciting battle where Giannis goes shot for shot with LeBron but I just don’t see it that way. The King is going to get his, no matter who defends him.

On this Cleveland team you can pretty much pencil LeBron’s averages per game in at about 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. Some nights he will do more facilitating while others he is going to be scoring in bunches, but either way he is going to be impossible to stop and he is going to do whatever it takes to get the Cavaliers a W.

The real question mark here is Giannis. Even though Giannis had an above average defensive rating last year at 101 points allowed per 100 possessions, he isn’t inhibiting LeBron from doing his thing.

Apr 2, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward LeBron James (6) makes a three point shot to end the third quarter over Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) as guard

Giannis Antetokounmpo

(34). Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

So the question is, can Giannis give the Bucks anything on offense to cancel out part of what James will do? LeBron had a pretty average defensive rating last year and the Greek Freak had a pretty average offensive rating too, both at 105.

However, LeBron is another year older and a lot of us expect Giannis to have a breakout year offensively this year. He may be able to score a little on King James. Not nearly enough to negate how effective LeBron will be on him, but enough to not leave his team in a big hole.

The penultimate player battle I’ll examine is between the power forwards, Jabari Parker and Kevin Love. This is a tough matchup to examine since Jabari has played in so few games. Stat line wise, the idea of what Jabari should be is what Kevin is, a great scorer and rebounder.

Jabari is more athletic than Love and because of that will score differently than him, but overall they accomplish similar things on the court. Neither is a plus defender, though Jabari’s athleticism means he can bother guys a little better than Kevin can. Offensively is where these two make their money.

The same question we asked about Giannis in the small forward match up with LeBron can be echoed here: can Parker score enough to somewhat cancel out Love’s output? Joining Cleveland last year saw Love’s PPG average drop from 26.1 to 16.4. The guy can score in bunches when he gets touches and I think his scoring average this season will creep back closer to 20.

With Jabari defending him, getting 20 points per game shouldn’t be too difficult. Last season, with a small sample size, Parker averaged 12.3 PPG. He was improving significantly at scoring right before his injury too. With a weak defender like Love guarding him, who had a defensive rating around league average last year, it would be feasible for Parker to average around 15 points per game this season.

Finally, we have Greg Monroe vs. Timofey Mozgov squaring off at the center spots. The only other positional advantage for the Bucks, Greg Monroe is going to be their go-to-guy this season. Last season Greg had an offensive rating and defensive rating better than league average at 110 and 103, respectively. Timofey also had an above average offensive rating and an average defensive rating at 117 and 105, respectively.

The ancillary starters on the Cavs that get to play with LeBron, Kyrie, and Kevin have a nicely boosted offensive rating, but Mozgov is no slouch on that end. He is a smart passer who cleans up missed shots and sets good picks. Regardless, Mozgov is no Monroe on offense.

Greg can have an entire offense run through him and that team can win games. Defensively Mozgov is a decent player but he isn’t going to stop Monroe. Monroe is not a strong defender but he isn’t going to let Mozgov go gang busters. I’d say both of these players will score at their typical rate in this matchup.

The way I see it, the starting lineup for Milwaukee would average about 68 points per game and the starting lineup for Cleveland would average about 79.5 points per game over the course of all of their meetings.

The Cavs have the sheer star power. LeBron, Kyrie, and Kevin alone would score less than 5 points per game fewer than all the Bucks starters together. That Big 3 is ridiculous and there is no advantage to be found there for Milwaukee, or any team for that manner.

Apr 8, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) runs into Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) during the third quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The only advantage the Bucks have in the starters matchup is the balance across all positions. I project all five starters for Milwaukee to average double figures across all their meetings with the Cleveland. The Cavs will have a hard time figuring out who to focus their defense on, because after Monroe, all the Bucks offensive weapons are about equal.

Giannis is a terror in transition, Khris can light it up from three, Michael can get to the hoop against most guards easily in the half court, and Jabari has an all around offensive game that few have at the age of 20.

The Bucks will need their bench to come up huge if they have any chance to beat the Cavaliers. Last year the Bucks bench was the eighth best scoring unit in the league at 37.0 PPG. They, however, have lost key pieces from their bench unit like Jared Dudley and Ersan Ilyasova whose contributions will be sorely missed.

The additions of Greivis Vasquez and Rashad Vaughn do not counteract what they have lost. I think the Bucks bench will score at a rate closer to league average this year, around 33.0 PPG.

The Cavs bench doesn’t really need to do much. They just have to not lose the huge leads that LeBron and co. build for them. Tristan Thompson (if he gets resigned) developed a lot in the playoffs and J.R. Smith is instant offense waiting to happen but besides that the cupboard is pretty bare on the Cavs bench. Cleveland had the worst scoring bench unit in the league last year at 23.8 PPG. I would expect that unit to improve some this season but not by much. I expect the Cavs bench to score around 26 PPG this year.

All told, I believe when playing against each other the Bucks will average 101 points per game and the Cavaliers will average 105.5 points per game. I think this gives the Bucks a good shot to win one out of four regular season contests, with a realistic but low chance to split the season series.

A best of seven playoff series between the two teams would be very interesting. Milwaukee’s versatile and long armed line ups could give Cleveland a lot of trouble. However, at this stage in both team’s development the Cavaliers are still the overwhelming favorites.

Playoff LeBron is a whole other animal compared to regular season LeBron. When he steps his game up to that level he makes this Cavs team virtually unbeatable. Giannis, with his never ending wingspan and athletic capabilities, would have zero chance of slowing him down. Monroe doesn’t have the defensive prowess in the middle to make it difficult for LeBron or Kyrie to get to the hoop. Those two would probably rip the Bucks vaunted defense to shreds. The Cavs would win a playoff series against the Bucks in five games.

The Bucks would fight, and more of the games would be close than not, but the talent and experience discrepancy is just too big for Milwaukee to overcome. This Bucks line up is good, maybe even really good, but they need at least a years time to mesh and grow together before they can be Eastern Conference Finals victors good.

The Cavaliers will be the team waiting in the 2016-17 season too. If the young Bucks make the requisite improvements maybe then we will see the next NBA champion in Milwaukee, but not before. King James and his Cavaliers aren’t going anywhere, it is up for the Bucks to get good enough to beat them in two years.

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