Milwaukee Bucks: The Benefits of Being Underestimated

Predictions and projections are everywhere at this time of year. It’s understandable, in fact, it’s a natural aspect of the excitement that the return of an NBA season brings with it. Leading into this season, Milwaukee Bucks fans could be forgiven for being frustrated by some predictions though.

Milwaukee came out of nowhere last season to make the playoffs and give the Chicago Bulls a first round scare, but in many ways that seems to have made a host of experts around the league even more suspicious of the Bucks than they were before.

Sure, it’s universally accepted that this is a group with lots of potential who may have an opportunity to compete for a conference title or even a championship down the road, but in the present, there seems to be a lot of mistrust and uncertainty.

Of course, you could list reasons to justify that feeling too. The loss of veteran influence around the locker room, continued question marks over shooting, and concerns that the league’s second best defense from last season will fall off, are just some of the arguments that immediately spring to mind.

They miss the point though. If the simple question is, are the Bucks better equipped and on the whole a better team this season than they were last, it’s hard to understand an answer that says on balance that they are not.

Grantland’s Zach Lowe, an NBA savant by all means, released his “35 Crazy Predictions for the 2015-16 NBA season” on Friday, and there was one particularly bold statement that would have caught the attention of Bucks fans.

In sixth spot on Lowe’s list, very simply, was “Milwaukee Misses The Playoffs”.

"I’m smelling a small and temporary step back for one of the league’s most exciting franchises.A lot of the late-season falloff, especially on offense, resulted from injuries and other issues with a peppy veteran bench. But the team’s offense cratered during the playoffs, and there may not be enough shooting when Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo share the floor with a traditional big manIf scoring is a grind, the Bucks won’t be able to afford much slippage on defense after finishing a shocking no. 2 in points allowed per possession.Plus, this team is just so damn young."

When Lowe speaks, you can’t help but listen. He’s one of the brightest minds currently writing on the game, and he has this inherent ability to pick up on minute and game-changing details that others don’t generally notice.

That wasn’t the case here though. These are the issues that Bucks fans, have acknowledged, discussed and debated all summer long.

Spacing problems, and need for one or both of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams to step up their shooting?

Check.

Concerns over defence without veteran communication of Dudley, Ilyasova and Pachulia, with below average defender Greg Monroe as the fulcrum in the middle?

Check.

Question marks over whether a team this young, with a still relatively inexperienced head coach can hold it all together and replicate or build upon last season’s success?

I think we’ve just completed Bucks offseason bingo!

Of course, these are all valid concerns, but they don’t take into account the overriding improvements the Bucks have made for this season.

In all the talk of replicating last season, it can often feel like people gloss over the fact that the Bucks achieved that success without their second overall pick Jabari Parker. In other words, without the player who would have been expected to help them improve the most from their 15 win season the year before, they reached 41 wins.

Jabari may not be back immediately, and he could well have an adjustment period, but if he gets blessed with much greater luck than last year and has a fully healthy campaign, who can say that even just as an option he won’t transform a team who relied on Dudley and Ilyasova in that position last year?

Monroe may not be the greatest defender in the world, but let’s make no mistake, Zaza Pachulia was not Mark Eaton either. The boon that Monroe’s much more accomplished offensive game should provide Milwaukee should counter any defensive drop off to be a net positive overall.

After all, do the Bucks really need to be a top three defense? Would they not be better served by working towards a balance where they eventually find themselves in the top ten on both sides of the ball?

If the Bucks stalled and stuttered offensively late in the season, and late in games too, well then Greivis Vasquez should go a long way to addressing that concern also. Like him or loathe him, Vasquez is not afraid to have the ball in his hands with the game on the line, and he’ll consistently create for himself or his teammates.

The 2015-16 Milwaukee Bucks are far from perfect, but what team is?

If the Bucks are too young, the Heat are too old.

If the Bucks have too many guys who want the ball in their hands, well then the Pacers don’t have enough.

If it was a mistake for the Bucks to bring in a center who could hurt their defense, well then what can be said of the Raptors, a team with the third lowest percentage of assisted three-point makes, signing DeMarre Carroll, a player who thrives on ball movement and open space.

The Bucks are unquestionably better than they were last season, and now they just need health on their side.

If those around the league want to underestimate the Bucks, not only are they doing so at their own peril, but they may also be helping them. This is a young team, so expectation is not something they’re accustomed to just yet. If they get talked down, they once again get a chance to rise up from the outside lane and become a feature in the playoff race.

Mark it down, not only will the Bucks make the playoffs, they might even advance to the second round.

Next: Milwaukee Bucks Pre-Season Accolades and Awards

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