Dwight Or No Dwight, The Milwaukee Bucks Shouldn’t Break The Bank

Forget demonizing Dwight Howard or worrying about his fit, it’s the financial side of any major free agent rumors that should concern Milwaukee Bucks fans

Gus Johnson was right–there is some sort of interest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Dwight Howard.

According to ESPN’s Calvin Watkins, Milwaukee is a favorite destination for Howard, should he choose to become a free agent this offseason.

Bucks fans are upset about this, and they should be. Just not for the reasons they currently are.

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Demonizing Dwight is a popular thing to do these days. It’s easy, and for whatever twisted reason Twitter users seem to have fun putting others down, especially if they’re famous.

Here’s the truth–Dwight isn’t a bad player, and he’s probably not a locker room cancer.

He didn’t really have those problems in Orlando–maybe trying to fit in next to temperamental shooting guards in Kobe Bryant and James Harden has more to do with Dwight’s current reputation than he does.

Either way, even if Dwight Howard was a perfect NBA player he’s not a very suitable option for the Milwaukee Bucks right now. The Bucks, like all NBA teams, have to play by the rules of the salary cap.

The cap going up these next few years is not automatically good for teams, believe it or not. It’s great for teams that already have signed their key players. The Bucks have not.

Khris Middleton is locked down. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker are not. Giannis is certainly worthy of a max deal, Jabari has another year to prove he is as well.

This summer is when the Bucks can first offer Giannis that max. Thanks to the new cable deal pumping money into the NBA, the salary cap for next season is currently estimated to be $92 million.

That’s not the important figure regarding Giannis’ extension, though. As per Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ, rookie deal extensions don’t start until after the last rookie option year.

That last option will be Giannis’ salary next season, when he’ll be making just under $3 million. He’ll be making a whole lot more than that the year after, as the salary cap is projected to spike all the way to $107 million for the 2017-18 NBA season.

Giannis is eligible to get a quarter of that in his first year, with 7.5 percent increases each year because he has his bird rights. Assuming the cap will be exactly $107 million, that means Giannis could get somewhere around $26.75 million his first year.

With the 7.5 percent increases in salary each year, Giannis would end up making over $150 million over five years. That’s a whole lot of smoothies.

It’s important to note here that if the Bucks want to sign Giannis to a five-year extension, they have to give him his max, which will be at least 25 percent of the cap in 2017-18. That’s how the designated player rule works in this CBA. It also means Milwaukee couldn’t sign Jabari to a five-year extension, unless that rule changes by then.

It could be more than 25 percent, but only if Giannis makes an All-NBA team both this season and next season or wins MVP next year. If either of those things happens, Antetokounmpo is eligible for 30 percent of that $107 million cap.

Giannis’ extension would kick in for the 2017-18 season. Let’s take a look at what Milwaukee’s team salary would look like by then.

Middleton, Jabari and Larry Sanders‘ buyout will combine for around $22 million. Giannis will add $26.75 million to that, bringing us to around $50 million already. John Henson‘s extension will be in effect by then too, adding another $10 million to the total.

That’s approximately $60 million across four roster spots, leaving under $50 million for the other 11. Adding a max player this year like Dwight or Mike Conley is simply not feasible.

Adding another $20 million to that cap means the Bucks would owe something like $80 million to five players, leaving $30 million to be split among ten guys. In the summer of 2017, $3 million will buy roughly nothing in terms of value.

Larry’s buyout money won’t count against the Bucks after that season, but Jabari’s extension will kick in by then. It will be more than the $2.1 million that Sanders is getting.

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This all assumes Greg Monroe is gone by then and that no players like Miles Plumlee, Jerryd Bayless and Michael Carter-Williams are re-signed. Even if Henson is traded, adding another max contract right now just doesn’t look possible.

The Bucks could probably go over the cap for Jabari’s deal, but they still need to find real players to fill out a bench before then. Plus we’ve no indication on how ownership feels about entering luxury tax territory.

Next: NBA Draft 2016: BTBP Big Board 2.0

These are good problems to have, because the Bucks have so many good players. But they’re still problems, and adding a veteran on an eight-figure deal makes them much more severe.