Milwaukee Bucks Roundtable: Round 1 – Boston Celtics
By Adam McGee
Is there any one matchup that you feel could prove to be decisive in this Bucks/Celtics series?
LW: Al Horford and how the Bucks play him may decide the series. The Bucks’ big men have struggled this year. With Kyrie out, Horford will be an even bigger part of the Celtics scoring effort.
Even more importantly though is how the Bucks plan to get Giannis a more favorable matchup than Horford. Stevens used Horford to defend Giannis at times this year, and Horford, who will probably make an All-Defensive team, gave the Greek Freak some issues.
If the Bucks were able to use screens or movement to get Horford off of Giannis, it would go a long way toward making the Bucks’ offense flow more smoothly.
RK: Our old friend Greg Monroe could pose a problem for Milwaukee’s centers. The NBA saw first hand how Moose turns it up in the playoffs, as he was a vital reason why the Bucks pushed the Toronto Raptors to six games last postseason.
John Henson isn’t suited to guard a big like Monroe, Tyler Zeller has a decent shot at guarding Monroe, and Thon Maker cannot defend anyone, much less Moose. However, the Bucks can immediately attack Monroe on the offense, as they should know better than anyone how many holes he has in his defensive game.
Tyler Zeller and Thon Maker can (kind of) stretch the floor and Monroe would get demolished.
RR: The most important thing to watch for is how Milwaukee plays Boston on the defensive end. Boston features one of the best defenses in the league, and Milwaukee is going to find themselves struggling to manufacture good looks.
The issue will be how the Bucks respond on the other end. Despite their record, Boston’s offense has largely been inconsistent. The problem becomes magnified when Kyrie Irving isn’t available for them. Milwaukee will need to address their key defensive weakness to prevent Boston from exploiting them and getting easy looks at the basket.
Keeping a body close to Al Horford as he drifts away from the paint will be pivotal. The Bucks have regularly been burned by stretch fours and fives this season, due to their aggressive scheme that involves a lot of ball watching. Horford is definitely a threat in the post, and on the boards. But his ability to stretch out and knock down threes can sink the Bucks early.
BS: Giannis vs Brad Stevens. The Bucks will have the best player on the court for the majority of the series, as Giannis is likely to step up his minutes (like all superstars do in the playoffs). The Celtics however will have the better schemes and structures on both ends of the floor as Brad Stevens will attempt to grind this series out.
It will truly be a fascinating series as pure talent will be up against a coaching masterclass. If the Bucks are to triumph, Giannis will likely have cemented himself as a perennial MVP candidate by virtue of destroying the Celtics on both ends of the floor. I honestly don’t foresee any other way the Bucks can win this series other than riding on the back of Giannis’ success.
MH: Eric Bledsoe vs Terry Rozier. I expect the Celtics to be focused on controlling Giannis’ impact in this series, and because they execute game plans well I believe that they will be able to live with most of what Giannis does. I’m looking for other areas of importance, and I expect the point guard matchup to be pivotal.
If either Bledsoe or Rozier can get it going offensively for a few games, those are the performances that are going to swing this series. Frankly, I expect that Rozier is going to have his hands full. Bledsoe has been playing great lately, and is a more seasoned player. He still has a lot to prove, and I expect him to make his mark on this series.
WW: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. whoever the Celtics throw at him. Giannis detonating is not enough for the Bucks to win, but Giannis scoring well is a requirement for the Bucks to win. Al Horford has seen the most possessions as Giannis’ main defender, defined by time of possession spent guarding him, but Giannis has found success against him scoring 8.4 points per 100 possessions above what he scores on average.
Semi Ojeleye, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum have all seen some time on Giannis as well, and Jaylen Brown has been the most effective by far, holding Giannis to 1.7 points per 100 possessions below his average.
The more success Giannis finds, the more it opens up the rest of the offense for the Bucks and keeps the other players in rhythm.
AM: Brad Stevens vs Joe Prunty.
After a strong start against inferior opponents, Prunty’s time as head coach has been inauspicious at best. The same problems that were present under Jason Kidd have persisted as his former staff have all moved up a seat.
The Bucks got a first hand look last season at just how important adjustments in-game and between games can be. After rattling the Raptors in the first three games, the Bucks never had a counter to Toronto’s counter and closed out the series with three straight losses.
Based on what Prunty has shown us so far, you have to fear that a similar problem could arise this time around. I feel confident that Stevens has some tricks up his sleeve that could confound the Bucks, but has Prunty got anything of his own?
The importance of coaching in the playoffs is highlighted by the ability of a team to fine tune their performance further after both positive and negative results. I expect the Celtics to cycle through multiple plans if needed in the coming days and weeks, but I’m not sure the Bucks even have a plan B if it’s required of them.