Milwaukee Bucks: Play it safe or swing for the fences on draft night?

As the Milwaukee Bucks prepare for the 2018 NBA Draft, can they afford to swing for the fences again or is it time to play things safe? Unfortunately, the answer is they need to find a way todo both.

At a time of great change for the Milwaukee Bucks as an organization, and a potential pivot point for philosophies that have been in play for a number of years, the 2018 NBA Draft represents a fascinating decision and juncture in the team’s journey.

There’s plenty of reason to wonder whether the team’s approach to the draft will change after a full year in charge for Jon Horst as general manager, and meaningful time with his own front office around him. In fact, that topic has even been explored on this very site.

Equally interesting, though, is discussion of what the approach the Bucks should take with their 17th overall pick is, as much as what it’s likely they will or won’t do.

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In many ways, the draft is an untameable beast where the only certainty is uncertainty. Even can’t miss prospects can occasionally miss, which further complicates the decisions teams have to make, and the discussion that fans and media have around it.

All of this is more relevant than ever for the Bucks, and not because they’re in need of a building block, but because they already have them and need to find able support.

With the salary cap crunch the Bucks are facing as they try to build a legitimate contender around Giannis Antetokounmpo, one that can ultimately convince the superstar to extend his stay beyond his current deal, low-cost and cost-controlled contributors are incredibly important to the Bucks.

Following a discouraging rookie season for last year’s 17th overall pick D.J. Wilson, and with the memory of the failed 2015 gamble on Rashad Vaughn still all too fresh in the mind, the Bucks can’t afford another limited to non-existent return from a first round selection. Milwaukee needs to add a real player with this pick, but what route offers the most realistic path to doing that?

As ever, the question will come down to whether the Bucks opt for an apparently safe selection with a more obvious readiness to contribute and fill that gap or whether they take a risk on a prospect who could become a much more central piece of their plans in the longer-term.

The appeal of the latter is tantalizing, particularly for a franchise with real top-end talent in place, but at their current place in development that’s a strategy which would be far from ideal. The biggest reason for that is for a player to possess really high upside yet still fall to 17 on draft night, there’s a guarantee of investing in a project of sorts.

Project picks can work out, but the reality is the Bucks are no longer in the kind of position where they can afford to wait three years for any contribution from a player who will take up salary and a roster spot that could be better utilized elsewhere.

On the other hand, even the players with proven production in college or overseas, and NBA-ready bodies to go with that pedigree, can underwhelm. Does an 11th or 12th man do anything to move the needle for a franchise’s long-term success? Of course, the answer is no.

Essentially, that provides the answer for the Bucks, though. Risk is a necessity for Jon Horst and his front office cohorts, but it can by no means afford to be reckless. The balance has to be struck between instant production and future ability, and the most difficult part of the process is undoubtedly identifying the players who hit the sweet spot between the two.

So when the Bucks are on the clock on Thursday night, the discussion shouldn’t be solely about what a player can do next season or what he can be down the road. The right pick will be the player best equipped to help now while also having some potential to grow in the future.

That may seem obvious, but in a draft culture that’s so frequently dominated by black-and-white discussion of long-term potential and plug-and-play ability, it’s worth remembering that the grey area between the two exists.

Settling on a prospect who fits that bill is a tough task, and the front office may well have their work cut out for them in making that call.

Next: Milwaukee Bucks: Casting attention overseas to fill out the roster?

This is the position the Bucks are in, though. They’ve got a generational talent at their disposal and they can’t afford to waste him. All decisions are tough now, but Thursday night’s selection needs to be the best of both worlds available to the team.

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