Giannis Antetokounmpo
Prediction: Will win the 2018-19 NBA MVP award
Why it will happen: Last season, Giannis looked like a sure-fire MVP candidate after the first couple of weeks. The Bucks were winning and Antetokounmpo was averaging over 30 points per game while also leading the team in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
Then, the Bucks and Giannis came back to Earth. The team struggled, the coach was fired and the Bucks wound up winning just 44 games on their way to the seventh seed in the playoffs.
Antetokounmpo still had an incredible season, averaging 26 points, 10 rebounds and nearly five assists a game, but his team wasn’t good enough and the stats weren’t eye-popping enough to get him in the discussion for Most Valuable Player. Especially not against the likes of James Harden, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
Now, Giannis has a new coach who should actually run an offense (a novel idea) and help the players around him to be better. If Giannis raises his points per game total (which he’s done every year) and the Bucks show themselves to be serious contenders in the East, that should be enough to catapult Giannis into the MVP consideration.
MVP voters tend to reward star players on overachieving teams (Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Stephen Curry in his first MVP season) and Giannis and the Bucks are poised to be just that.
The Bucks’ over/under for total wins this season is currently set at 48.5. If the Bucks can surpass that and move to the 50-win marker (which they’ve done exactly once since 1987) and Giannis is averaging nearly 30 points per game, he’d have a heads up on the competition.
Harden is unlikely to repeat as MVP again, especially if the Rockets regress at all. I don’t see how one Warriors player (Durant or Curry) could amass enough votes on their own over the other, LeBron’s Lakers likely won’t be in contention in their first year and the shine has worn off Westbrook after a disappointing 2017-18 campaign.
Plus, I think MVP voters will just want to vote for Giannis. He’s probably the most likable superstar in the league, and many say it’s only a matter of time before he becomes the NBA’s best player. So, why wait? New MVP winners are fun and exciting, and fans want to see what he can do with the NBA’s most prestigious label.
If Giannis continues on his career track and the Bucks improve enough to warrant conversation as a conference contender, the MVP will go to Milwaukee’s favorite son.
Why it won’t happen: A large part of this depends on the Bucks as a team improving by at least six wins, likely even more. Yes, Budenholzer takes over and is a former coach of the year, but that’s a lot to ask for a coach in his first year with a new team.
The Bucks added some nice pieces in Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova, but is that enough to warrant a nearly 10-win jump from last year? It’s dicey.
Plus, if LeBron’s Lakers overachieve in the slightest, it’d be hard to not reward him with the MVP, an award he hasn’t won in far too long.
Things have to break just right for Giannis and the Bucks for this to happen, and there are a lot of ways his MVP campaign can fall apart before it even gets going.