Khris Middleton
Prediction: Will set a career-high in three-point field goal percentage.
Why it will happen: Middleton, since he came to the Bucks, has been the team’s most consistent and lethal three-point shooter. Last year, however, his numbers dipped a little.
After shooting at least 39 percent from deep the past four seasons, Middleton’s numbers dropped to just 35 percent from beyond the arc. It’s hard to gauge why he struggled; he just seemed to have a slow start to the season and couldn’t exactly find his range until later in the year.
But, with the arrival of Budenholzer, who is known for offensive schemes that prioritize three-point shooting (just look at the Bucks’ first preseason game in which they attempted 45 three-point field goals), that’s likely to change. Middleton has always been a great shooter over his career, despite playing in an offense that rarely helped him get open shots from deep.
Under a new offense that emphasizes ball-movement and passing to create open shots, Middleton should see more open looks than ever. Middleton may not improve much on his points per game from last year (20.1), but the way he scores will come from more open shots on the perimeter.
Why it won’t happen: 43.3 percent, which is Middleton’s previous career best, is really good! And, he did it in the 2016-17 season, when he only played in 29 games due to injury. A lesser man may use this as an excuse to not count that year in the context of the prediction, but I am no coward.
It is going to be extremely hard for Middleton to surpass those numbers over an entire season, new offensive principles or not.
Middleton may say he’s going to shoot more threes, but he’s still one of the best mid-range shooters in the game. Don’t expect him to just drop that key element of his game right away.
Maybe toward the end of the year, as he and the team get more comfortable in Budenholzer’s system, we’ll see an uptick in Middleton’s shooting numbers. But over a whole season? A stretch.