Milwaukee Bucks Roundtable: Early season reactions and predictions

Q1. Which aspect(s) of Milwaukee’s hot start is/are the most sustainable for the rest of the season: its second-ranked offensive rating, third-ranked defensive rating or first-ranked net rating?

Ben Rauman (@BenRauman): Although I think both their offensive and defensive ratings are both reasonably sustainable, I don’t believe they will still own the top-ranked net rating by the end of the season, with the Golden State Warriors barely trailing them in that department. However, I don’t believe they’ll fall far due to the brilliance of both their offense and defense thus far.

If I had to choose between the sustainability of their offensive and defensive ratings, I’d have to go with the offense. The Bucks already had the 10th-ranked offensive rating last year in a system that took among the fewest threes in the NBA and mainly relied on the isolation skills of its top players.

Currently, 43.8 percent of the Bucks’ field goal attempts come from behind the arc, good for second in the league only behind the Houston Rockets. In addition, a mere 3.4 percent of their points come from mid-range jumpers this year, the fewest in the league. Last year, they ranked ninth in percentage of points from mid-range.

With players only taking the most efficient shots, the offense as a whole should only improve as players get more comfortable in the scheme.

Dominique Baguna (@DominiqueBaguna): Their third-ranked defensive rating is the most sustainable. Other teams can adjust to the Bucks style of offense and could cause their offensive rating to fall. If the Bucks continue to play their defense and adjust accordingly, their defensive rating should stay the same.

Jordan Treske (@JordanTreske): Though I was tempted to go bold and say their net rating, I, too, will go with their defensive rating. Look, there have been plenty of questions about the team’s defensive scheme, especially after losses (funny how that works), and how susceptible the Bucks could be down the road when they go against a particularly tough matchup (i.e. teams with dynamic scoring point guards or spacing bigs).

All valid concerns, no doubt, but I do think it’s all premature at this point in time, given how many marked improvements we’ve seen from them across the board so far. Based on the personnel they have and with more time to gel as well as adapt to any new wrinkles that may be added by Coach Bud and his staff, it does feel like the Bucks are only scratching the surface with how potent they can be as a defensive unit.

Adam McGee (@AdamMcGee11): I’m going to go with the offensive rating as that’s the area where they actually have some grounding already. On talent alone, they cracked the top-10 last season, and now with personnel improvements and a significant upgrade in terms of scheme and philosophy, there’s no reason to think they can’t be one of the NBA’s very best on that end.

That’s not to say that the other two are completely unsustainable, but the offense is where I’d currently feel most confident in them avoiding a drop-off.

Robby Cowles (@RoBByCowles): Although I think both the offensive and defensive ratings are sustainable, I’ll say that the offense has a slightly better chance of maintaining and improving over the rest of the season. I’m not saying I think the defense is going to significantly regress, I just still believe we haven’t seen the offense at its best yet.

Even though Giannis has been putting up gaudy numbers and stats, it still feels like he hasn’t completely settled in and gotten comfortable within Budenholzer’s offense. It’s understandable, since he probably had the biggest adjustment to make of any of the players, but once Giannis gets a little more familiar with the offense and gets better at choosing his spots and refining his shot selection, the offense should hum with even better efficiency.

Bob Polglaze (@BobPolglaze): I think I’ll go with their offensive rating being the most sustainable, though I don’t think the defensive rating or net rating will see any drastic fall. The offense is currently tied for second, and their best player is still visibly uncomfortable in the scheme. After another couple of weeks, there is a good chance Giannis will have acclimated to this system and the Bucks should be able to sustain (or improve upon) this offensive output.

I also think it’s fair to have a few concerns about the defense. While it is currently third in the league, they are allowing the most three-point attempts to their opponents, and they were pretty lucky in the first few games with their opponents shooting such a poor percentage (they are currently 14th in opponent three-point percentage). Bud has experimented with defensive adjustments in certain games, but he has mostly stuck with the current scheme, which we have seen be exposed by certain teams and, specifically, certain players.

Jacob Katz (@JKatz_Bucks): I agree with the others who say the third-ranked defensive rating is the most sustainable. The Bucks are hustling at a higher level this year and currently lead the league in average contested shots per game. Bud’s more conservative scheme is another source of the improvement. The Bucks are playing more conservatively and forcing opponents to settle for mid-range shots, an analytically favorable trend.

A flaw of the system is that it can allow hot shooters to torch Milwaukee, as Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, and CJ McCollum have exhibited. I see the kinks in the scheme getting figured out, the effort continuing, and the overall product only improving.