Milwaukee Bucks: The formula for defending James Harden

Why it’s sustainable

The next logical question would then be, why haven’t other teams employed this strategy since it worked so well for Milwaukee?

Well, some teams actually have tried to replicate it, but none have even sniffed the success Milwaukee has had using it.

Recently, the Utah Jazz have employed this “Harden Rules” strategy against the Rockets in their first-round playoff series, but have failed miserably to execute it properly, as shown in the tweet below:

The above graphic is similar to the one from earlier that was used to illustrate James Harden’s passes against the Bucks in their second matchup.

However, Utah failed to clog the right side of the floor or force Harden into any difficult right to left passes, ceding a multitude of kick-outs to the perimeter and feeds to Capela inside.

The Jazz now trail 0-2 in the series against the Rockets and have been blown out twice while being torn apart defensively.

So, have James Harden and the Rockets figured out how to beat this unconventional defense the Bucks invented? Have the Rockets simply regressed back to the mean with a larger sample size?

Basketball is a game of many variables, and there is never just one answer or solution to questions like these.

However, it is important to note that very few teams in the league have the personnel necessary to pull this scheme off with such positive results.

Most teams do not have a guard with the defensive talent of Eric Bledsoe to successfully execute forcing James Harden right. Many teams do not have a rim protector with the size and defensive IQ of Brook Lopez to consistently alter shots at the rim without fouling.

And no team in the Association has a player with the defensive versatility and gravity of Giannis Antetokounmpo to act as a safety net on the back end when the scheme otherwise breaks down.

When you factor this with the rest of the defensive versatility found up and down the Bucks’ roster, it makes sense why other teams have not found similar success using their unique approach.

So, the Bucks have the personnel to sustain their success defending James Harden, but can the Rockets counter the Bucks’ strategy?

One way the Rockets could combat Milwaukee’s approach is by surrounding James Harden with four shooters and taking away the rim protection of Brook Lopez. In this case, the Bucks would no longer be able to cede the entire lane to Harden while their big man guards the hoop.

The Rockets have deployed lineups with P.J. Tucker at center, but there are questions regarding how those lineups could hold up against the Bucks’ front court talent on the defensive end. Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo would shred through those lineups offensively.

Additionally, by sitting Clint Capela, the Rockets lose one of their key contributors and best rebounders. Kenneth Faried has shown the ability to stretch the floor on a small number of attempts with Houston, but the Bucks would gladly allow him to fire away from deep at his 32 percent clip on the season.

A reason for optimism is that Houston had the opportunity to watch film and counter the Bucks’ scheme in the teams’ second meeting, but the Bucks actually ended up having more success on that occasion.

While the Rockets may simply not care enough about regular season contests to considerably change their approach on a night-to-night basis, it’s no secret that the Rockets really wanted to use these games to boost Harden’s MVP case over Giannis this season.

Though the Bucks have only played the Rockets twice this season, based on what we’ve seen so far, it feels like Milwaukee has truly found a strategy that could be sustainable to slowing down the reigning MVP James Harden in a potential seven-game Finals series.

Milwaukee’s personnel combined with the Rockets’ current roster construction makes it seem unlikely that the Rockets would be able to effectively counter this strategy on a consistent basis without in sacrificing in other key areas.

There are a lot of playoffs to get through before the Bucks need to worry about a potential Finals matchup, and anything could happen in these next few rounds in both the East and West.

But one thing’s for sure, James Harden and the Rockets will have their work cut out for them if they find themselves playing a certain team from Wisconsin in June.