Milwaukee Bucks: Analyzing Eric Bledsoe vs. Kyrie Irving

Tale of the tape

Irving, like Bledsoe, is critical to the success of the Boston Celtics. Irving played 67 games during the regular season and Boston went 37-30 in those games.

Irving’s net rating in the 37 wins is above 17, while in the 30 losses it drops to -6. You’ll notice it’s a similar swing in net rating that Bledsoe has in wins and losses.

It’s fair to say that both point guards are the motors that drive their teams, with their individual performances usually being the difference between a win or a loss.

In the regular season, the Bucks won two games out of three against the Celtics, and although Bledsoe didn’t perform well offensively (averaged just 11 points and three assists on 44 percent shooting) his defensive work on Irving was promising.

In those three games, Bledsoe defended Irving on 111 possessions, according to Second Spectrum, the third most possessions any guard in the NBA defended Irving all season.

In those 111 possessions, Irving scored 32 points, shot 36 percent from the field, 40 percent from three, and the Celtics scored 142 points as a team.

Now, that last stat is quite concerning. The Celtics, as a team, had a lot of success when Bledsoe was defending Irving, but the other stats paint a picture that Bledsoe is giving Irving everything he can handle.

Among the 19 players who defended Irving for at least 50 possession during the regular season, Bledsoe held Irving to the third-lowest field goal percentage at 36 percent, behind only Kyle Lowry (33.3 percent on 55 possessions) and Trey Burke (33.3 on 74 possessions).

When we look at Irving’s stat-lines against Milwaukee during the regular season a pattern emerges that shows how Milwaukee and Bledsoe can beat Boston and Irving

In the first game, in Boston, Irving lit up the Bucks with 28 points on 20 field goal attempts. The Celtics set a franchise record for three-point field goals in a single game and narrowly defeated the Bucks.

In Game 2, also in Boston, Bledsoe and the Bucks did a much better job, holding Irving to just 15 points on 20 attempts. In game three, in Milwaukee this time, the Bucks and Bledsoe again contained Irving to a low-efficiency night with 22 points on 27 field goal attempts.

Over the three games, Irving averaged 21 points per game, but he shot just 38 percent, much lower than his season average of 48 percent.

If the Bucks were given the opportunity to guarantee that Irving would score 20 points in every game of the series–no more, no less–but it would take 20 shots, I’d imagine they’d take that deal in a heartbeat.

Irving is as capable as any player in the league of going off for 40+ points on any given night. If the Bucks can just keep him at normal levels of damage, that’d be a remarkable job by the defense.

Irving is going to get buckets, it’s just what he does. Bledsoe doesn’t need to outright stop him, he just needs to make him work harder than he normally has to.

In the first round against the Indiana Pacers, Irving averaged 22 points per game on 42 percent shooting from the field. If Bledsoe and the Bucks can bump that down just a little bit in terms of points and efficiency, that’s a win for the team.

Although Bledsoe and the Bucks have done an admirable job on Irving this season, there is one area that is a cause for concern for the team. Irving has been lighting them up from beyond the arc.

The Bucks defensive scheme under Budenholzer has always been focused on protecting the paint at all costs, which means that in a pick-and-roll situation, the defender playing the screener will drop into the paint while the player defending the ball-handler will go over the top of the screen and attack him from behind, funneling him into the waiting arms of the Bucks big men.

This most commonly happens with Brook Lopez and Bledsoe. Obviously, the numbers show that the defense has worked as the Bucks have had the best defense all season and been better at protecting the paint than anyone.

Against the Celtics, though, Irving and big man Al Horford have been able to attack this defense with success.

Irving is one of the craftiest ball-handlers in the game and is so quick at getting off his shot quickly and accurately, even when he’s off-balance.

Against the Bucks in the regular season, Irving was 11-of-24 from beyond the arc. Not every single three came from a screen, but the majority did.

Back to that list of players who have defended Irving for at least 50 possessions, Bledsoe is just the eighth-best in terms of Irving’s three-point percentage against him (40.0 percent), and his backup, George Hill, is the worst, with Irving shooting 60.0 percent against him.

Clearly, Irving has been comfortable shooting the ball from deep against Milwaukee so far.

Horford, Irving’s regular pick-and-roll partner, has also attacked the Bucks from beyond the arc, regularly popping out to the top of the key for a three-point attempt when Lopez drops into the paint.

Against the Bucks, Horford is averaging 8.5 three-point attempts per game (he only played in two of the games during the regular season) and is shooting 35 percent from deep.

In the first game between these two teams in Boston, Horford hoisted 11 shots from beyond the arc, making four. Against all other teams, Horford averages just three three-point attempts per game.

Now, 35 percent isn’t exactly killing the Bucks, but it’s still enough to be concerned with and if he continues to hoist them up with such proclivity, it could make for a big problem.

How are Irving and Horford doing this?

Part of it is both are just really good and smart players who can shoot, but I think part of it is also the location where Horford is setting these screens. Normally, a screen right at the three-point line means that when the ballhandler goes around it, he’s already crossed the three-point line with Bledsoe behind him, so his best option is to simply keep moving forward, into Lopez.

Horford, I’ve noticed at least a couple of times against the Bucks, is setting ball-screens for Irving a couple of feet higher than normal, giving Irving enough room to curl around the screen but still have space to pull-up before the three-point line.

Lopez, whose primary concern is covering the paint, can’t come out that far to contest that shot and Irving is so quick with his shot that he can get it off the instant he gets some space from Bledsoe, practically giving him a wide-open attempt.

This matchup between Bledsoe and Irving could very well decide the series, and this specific play could decide the matchup. If the Celtics attack the Bucks’ conservative defense again and again with a high pick-and-roll that leads to an open Irving or Horford three, the Bucks could be forced to adjust their strategy or use different personnel.

Much of it will come down to Bledsoe. He’s done a terrific job all season at fighting over screens and applying pressure to ball-handlers from behind, but against Irving and Horford, he’s going to have to be on his absolute A-game.

He can’t get hung up on a screen even a little bit or else Irving is going to have a wide-open shot. Bledsoe is going to have to be tenacious every possession, fighting through as many screens as possible and using his athleticism to contest from behind without fouling.

It’s going to be incredibly difficult for Bledsoe against one of the best offensive players in the entire league, but the Bucks could be in deep trouble if he can’t do it.

If Irving gets hot from the three-point line, Budenholzer is going to have to make some kind of change, whether it’s in terms of switching out Lopez for a smaller but quicker big man or the scheme altogether.

Bledsoe vs. Irving could decide the series, and this key play could decide the matchup.