Milwaukee Bucks: 2019 NBA Draft primer and predictions

Predicting the pick

While this exercise has its value partially minimized, as 29 players need to be chosen first to provide the accurate pool of players left on the board, we live in a time of endless opinions, so I’ll provide my best guess on how draft night will play out.

The Bucks will NOT choose a player on behalf of another team in an agreed upon trade (an option floated by many), and rather will indeed use their last draft pick until June of 2021 on a player they can hope to add to the long-term rotation on an inexpensive contract for the next few years.

With the 30th overall pick, Jon Horst will be looking for a long term rotation player with one or two NBA level skills already developed as a benchmark, with the hope that the player has the chance to build on the foundation and develop in to something more.

If Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the combo guard from Virginia Tech, were to last until pick 30, I think the pick is a no-brainer. He offers positional versatility in the mold of a Malcolm Brogdon, while checking all boxes of pass, dribble, shoot, while able to defend multiple positions. While not an elite athlete, Alexander-Walker offers an across-the-board skill set, and is likely to be a 10-year NBA player if put in the right situation such as Milwaukee.

Assuming Alexander-Walker is chosen earlier than 30, as is expected, the Bucks instead may look to draft the lesser known Louis King. The freshman out of Oregon has NBA length and a beautiful NBA jump shot extending out past the 3-point line. He has more athleticism, ball-handling and quickness than Cam Johnson (a prospect in the same mold, though Johnson’s 3-point shot may be the best in the class), which certainly heightens King’s NBA ceiling. At 6’9″, King has the perfect size and athletic profile for modern-day wings that can play up to 3 different positions, depending on lineups and matchups.

No matter what happens with Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, George Hill, and Nikola Mirotic, the Bucks aren’t replacing any of these players with the 30th pick in the draft.

While perceived “safer” picks may be available such as Ty Jerome, Carsen Edwards, or Eric Paschall, I tend to go against conventional wisdom to say that the Bucks might be wise to take more of a long-term gamble on a player with a lower floor but higher upside. As their salary cap will become air-tight for the length of this player’s first contract, obtaining higher-end talent will become increasingly difficult.

Despite the cap squeeze, I don’t foresee Jon Horst having any issue with continuing to fill the roster margins with less expensive rotation player types such as Pat Connaughton, D.J. Wilson, and Sterling Brown, which may give him more flexibility to take a riskier swing heading into this draft.

King’s shot profile, athleticism, length, and versatility is a perfect fit in Mike Budenholzer’s schemes. While he wouldn’t be counted on to produce as a rookie, King could eventually carve out the role of spelling Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton (assuming he sticks around), while still providing length and shot-making ability in the staggered bench-mob lineups.

So, with the 30th pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, my prediction is the Milwaukee Bucks will select Louis King.

The NBA Draft will take place from Barclays Center in New York, with coverage beginning at 6pm CT on ESPN. Of course, you’ll be able to find all of the Bucks’ related news, analysis and reaction to the night here on Behind the Buck Pass, too.