Milwaukee Bucks: Three-point volume starts sky high, beyond expectations

The Milwaukee Bucks weren’t bashful about letting it fly from deep last season, yet the early evidence suggests that rate may increase dramatically this year.

The first few games of a new NBA season always offer up their unique set of peculiarities and sources of intrigue, and the opening of the Milwaukee Bucks’ 2019-20 campaign is no exception to that rule.

In particular, there’s always an ongoing challenge in trying to account for what could be evidence of real change versus what may ultimately be proven as little more than amplified small sample noise.

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I took a closer look at one such source of early fascination for the Bucks on Tuesday, as I fixed the spotlight on the relentless pace Milwaukee has implemented to start the season, and why they’d be best advised to rein it in somewhat.

In short, it’s not unusual for the early season to provide exaggerated versions of wider changes a team is looking to implement, with the benefit of time then offering a chance for those tweaks to be fine-tuned, and frequently pared back to some extent.

Another area deserving of closer scrutiny from the Bucks’ early season numbers, though, is the volume with which Mike Budenholzer’s team has been firing away from three-point range.

The Bucks carved out a reputation as one of the NBA’s most three-point happy teams under Bud’s watch in his first season in charge, and with the makeup of the the roster, it was inevitable that it would remain a key component this season.

In 2018-19, the Bucks ranked second in the NBA in terms of three-point attempts per game, averaging 38.2 triples per contest. That still left the Houston Rockets comfortably clear at the top of the NBA with 45.4 three-point attempts per game.

Nobody has shown a greater commitment to playing the math game, and firing away for three than the Rockets in recent years, and so the thought of any team surpassing them in those rankings has seemed incredibly unlikely. That sense was only further confirmed when Houston attempted an absurd 55.5 three-point attempts per game in the preseason.

Yet with both teams having played three games so far, and with the rest of the NBA slotting in at between three and four contests to date, it’s the Bucks who sit atop the standings for three-point attempts per game.

Milwaukee is averaging 46 triple attempts per game, with the Rockets currently close behind in third at 45.8. The Rockets element of this accounts for a large part of the surprise, but only a small part of the conversation when it comes to projecting what may hold up over a much larger sample for the Bucks moving forward.

Given the fact that the Bucks only averaged 39.2 three-point attempts per game in the preseason, their sudden jump to start the regular season undoubtedly grabs the attention. Is this evidence of a shift in strategy to be much more shot-happy from beyond the arc this season, is it just initial over-reaction to a pivot in philosophy, and is it even likely to be sustainable or beneficial to the Bucks to push their long-range shooting to these extremes over the course of 82 games?

It is worth noting that when adjusted per 100 possessions, the positions of the Bucks and Rockets flip, with Milwaukee falling to third. That can be attributed to the fact the Bucks’ current measure includes an overtime game, and perhaps more tellingly, the breakneck pace the Bucks have employed to start the season.

The Bucks are simply creating more possessions on a game by game basis to start the season than any team other than the Memphis Grizzlies, who of course are coached by former Bucks assistant coach Taylor Jenkins.

If pace begins to fall back just a little, as I believe it should, Milwaukee’s three-point volume will decrease with it.

On the other hand, it could be no coincidence that the increase in both pace and three-point volume are presenting together at the start of the season. Budenholzer and the Bucks may be intent on committing to an even more exaggerated version of pace and space this season.

For now, only time will tell what’s real and what’s not about the Bucks statistical profile to open up the season. In the meantime, though, it’s certainly offering enough of interest to warrant close attention moving forward.