Milwaukee Bucks: It’s time to experiment more at shooting guard

It’s been an interesting start to the season for the Milwaukee Bucks at the shooting guard position. With Wesley Matthews struggling to find his shot, should they consider tweaking their rotations at that position?

We may be just eight games into the 2019-20 season. However, even in this small sample of games, the Milwaukee Bucks have shown some potential weakness at the shooting guard position.

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that Milwaukee’s second guard position has been a bit volatile in the early going. With their starter from last season gone, and a new signing in Wesley Matthews coming in to replace him, there was always going to be some bumps in the road as the team and player got acclimated to one another.

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Matthews struggles, however, particularly with his shot, do raise some real concerns about the long-term viability of playing him as a starter. Let’s dive into the numbers.

Through nine games so far, Matthews has shot 43.1 percent from the floor on 5.7 attempts per game. Though that’s not an incredibly efficient number, it’s better than any field goal percentage he’s posted in a season since before he tore his Achilles back in the 2014-15 season.

Where he’s having issues, though, is from distance. Over 72 percent of his attempted shots so far have been threes (4.1 per game). Matthews is making them at only a 32.4 percent clip. If those percentages were to hold over larger number of games, it would be the worst he’s shot from distance in any season in his career.

So far, 3.1 of his three point attempts per game have been of the catch-and-shoot variety. He’s made just 35.7 percent of those. He’s been even worse on pull-up threes, hitting on just 25 percent of those through nine games.

A major part of what attracted the team to sign Matthews over the summer was his ability to hit a high number of catch-and-shoot threes at a really efficient clip. Last season, in 69 games, he made 40.1 percent of those shots on over 4.3 attempts per game. That percentage put him in the same ball park as other elite shooters such as Kyle Korver (40.3 percent on 3.5 attempts per game) and Klay Thompson (40.5 percent on 6.1 attempts per game).

Even the man he replaced on the Bucks, Malcolm Brogdon, was a dead-eye on those shots for Milwaukee last season (47.5 percent), but he only attempted 2.8 of those shots per game. The volume, and not just the percentages, was what made the veteran guard an ideal offensive replacement for Brogdon.

With his shot evading him so far, though, the team has been a roller coaster on the offensive-end when he’s been on the floor. The lack of consistent floor-spacing provided by him and others has cratered the Bucks half-court offense at times. This was on full display in the drubbing Milwaukee took at the hands of Boston a few weeks ago.

The advanced numbers the team has put up with him on the floor, however, have been incredible. Milwaukee currently has the sixth best offensive rating in the NBA at 110.2, the eighth best defensive rating at 102.1, and the third best net rating at 8.1.

When Matthews is on the floor, their offensive rating improves slightly to 110.8, and their defensive rating drops to what would be a league-best 96.1. The team has an eye-popping 14.7 net rating in the 23.4 minutes per game that he’s been on the floor. Thus, for as much as he’s struggled to hit his shot so far, the team has been playing at a really high level in the minutes he’s been on the floor.

It is worth noting, though, that Milwaukee’s other guards who’ve played minutes at the position have been solid in their time on the floor as well.

Sterling Brown has been quite good in his very limited minutes so far. Brown has shot 50 percent from the floor so far, and is 40 percent from three in 11.1 minutes per game over six games. The team’s offensive rating in his minutes is 107.5, their defensive rating is 86.7, and their net rating is 20.8.

Donte DiVincenzo, who has split time between both guard spots, is shooting 38.9 percent from the floor on 6.0 attempts, and is shooting 45 percent from three on 3.3 attempts per game over six appearances. The team’s offensive rating when he’s been on the floor so far is 109, their defensive rating is 86, and their net rating is 23.

The shooting numbers, and advanced stats with George Hill on the floor are very similar to Brown and DiVincenzo as well, though the team’s defensive rating is a tad worse in his minutes to date (103.9), and their net rating in his minutes isn’t quite as elite (10.6) as it is with others.

What does all of this tell us? It suggests that the Bucks can afford to reduce Matthews minutes a bit more than they already have, even if they keep him as a starter.

Brown and DiVincenzo have shown some serious flashes on both ends of the court in their reserve roles. Given that they’ve made the most of the most of those opportunities, the team needs to explore giving them more minutes to see if they can continue to build on that over a larger number of minutes in games.

Brown, in particular, showed real potential at the end of last season when he was given an increased role. Given that he’s made the most of his playing time again, Coach Mike Budenholzer would be well-served to see if they have a potential starting caliber guard in him.

There’s a ton of basketball left to played. However, the Bucks can afford to experiment a bit more with how to distribute minutes at shooting guard.

Unless Matthews can re-establish himself as a consistent knock-down shooter, they should consider using their other options more in the coming games. This means reducing Matthews minutes in games where he’s not hitting his shots.