The Milwaukee Bucks are hoisting more three-pointers, and from well beyond the 3-point line, than they did last season. Yet their efficiency on such shots tells a different story that could be explained by one lingering issue.
As the NBA continues to explore the limitless boundaries of shooting from behind the 3-point line as ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry recently explored, the Milwaukee Bucks have been a leading example in this department over the last couple of seasons.
With the arrival of reigning NBA Coach of the Year, Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have been mandated to let it fly from well beyond the 3-point line, with those patented blue squares that represent the team’s five-out system being implemented on the first day of training camp ahead of the 2018-19 season.
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It was a brand new day in Milwaukee and the results of turning their attention to beyond the arc to open up driving lanes, and the paint for the reigning MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo, clearly speak for themselves.
This season, the Bucks have continued to launch more 3-point attempts where they currently rank third in the NBA at 39.4 3-point attempts per game, standing behind the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets.
It’s through Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ egalitarian ethos prized by Budenholzer that they have generated the third-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in the league, per NBA.com/stats. On such opportunities, the Bucks are hitting 36.7 percent of those looks, good for 17th in the NBA.
But as the Bucks continue to increase their 3-point volume year over year in Budenholzer’s second year in charge, their efficiency on shots taken from those blue squares that are stationed far away from the three-point line lags behind significantly.
Milwaukee has both made and attempted the most 3-point shots of any NBA team taken from 25 to 29 feet, yet they convert those looks at a 33.6 three-point percentage, good for 24th in the league.
Compared to how they fared on such opportunities from that range of the floor last season, that’s a slight dip as the Bucks made and attempted the second-most amount of shots taken from 25 to 29 feet, standing behind the Houston Rockets. And the Bucks stood in the middle of the pack by connecting on those looks at a 34.5 percent clip, ranking 15th in the NBA.
Despite the shooting reinforcements they got over the offseason from the likes of Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews, as well as the improved shooting years between their All-Stars in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, the Bucks have actually regressed in hitting shots from deep beyond long range.
This is where the extended shooting slump of starting big man Brook Lopez comes into the picture. The 31-year-old is currently enduring through an incredibly inefficient campaign offensively where he’s averaging a career-worst 9.6 points on .382/.290/.902 shooting splits through his 26 appearances this season.
And it’s from long distance where the breadth of Lopez’s shooting woes have been felt the most within the Bucks’ second-ranked offense in terms of offensive efficiency. Lopez has hit 25.5 percent of his 102 3-point attempts taken from 25 to 29 feet this season. Last year, the seven-footer had hit on 35.5 percent of his 391 attempts taken from that range of the floor.
Compare that to the reigning MVP, Antetokounmpo, who leads the Bucks on shots taken from 25 to 29 feet at 125 attempts this season and has hit such looks at a 31.2 three-point percentage.
Acting as a main hub to open up the floor and paint for the Bucks’ skilled drivers on the ball, Lopez’s shooting struggles obviously haven’t derailed the team’s offense or its production. And Budenholzer and his coaching staff have been able to incorporate some more variety within the Bucks’ offense, which has been able to help Lopez combat his range shooting troubles.
Sooner or later, Lopez will hopefully be able to shed his shooting issues and start coming into his own as a spacing threat and in turn, the Bucks’ deep marksmanship will rise accordingly.
But while logic tells us that would be the case, that’s hardly a given, considering how prolonged this stretch has become. And with the Bucks being able to generate the level of 3-pointers as they do on a nightly basis, whether Lopez can ever regain his deep shooting stroke will be crucial to if their effectiveness spreading the floor to the lengths that they do will bounce back.