Behind the Bucks Pass
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Milwaukee Bucks: Taking early threes remains far from effective

By Jordan Treske

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 28: Eric Bledsoe #6 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots over Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Washington Wizards during the first half at Fiserv Forum on January 28, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 28: Eric Bledsoe #6 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots over Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Washington Wizards during the first half at Fiserv Forum on January 28, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /
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The Milwaukee Bucks have emphasized taking shots early in the shot clock, including threes, but their success on such attempts lags behind considerably.

Throughout their 2019-20 season, the Milwaukee Bucks have proved it’s not just where you take your shots, but also when you take them in the shot clock.

As the league’s standard bearer in pace all throughout the year, the Bucks have embraced playing at a breakneck pace under head coach Mike Budenholzer. Combine that with the Bucks launching the amount of 3-pointers they do at a very high volume over the last two seasons and they stand as a threat to shoot it well before opposing defenses are able to settle in.

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The numbers back that up as the Bucks lead the NBA with the 553 threes they have attempted this year in what’s deemed very early in the shot clock, 22-18 seconds, per NBA.com/stats.

Their 9.1 3-point frequency percentage stands above the New Orleans Pelicans, who come in at second in this department and play with the third-highest pace this season.

Regardless of whether it’s behind the 3-point line or at the basket, taking shots during that range of the shot clock is a feature in the Bucks’ offensive system. And that’s reflected by the fact that no team attempts more shots from 22-18 seconds in the shot clock than the Bucks, all of which is informed by their elite standing on the defensive end.

Yet, in spite of all this, they are far from a viable shooting team as the 34.2 percent clip they’ve compiled on such attempts currently comes in as the sixth-worst mark in the league this season.

That’s only been exacerbated since restarting their season down in Orlando. In fact, the Bucks have hit just four of their 19 3-point attempts taken from 22-18 seconds in the shot clock, which is good for 21.1 percent and the worst figure for all 22 teams taking part in the NBA’s restart.

That couldn’t contrast further from the Bucks’ ability to convert scoring opportunities inside the arc and specifically at the basket very early in the shot clock as they have the second-highest 2-point percentage (66 percent), ranking only behind the Los Angeles Lakers.

Having let it fly to the degree that they do early in offensive possessions for the last two seasons, their poor marksmanship on such attempts can precipitously stall out their offense as we’ve seen at times throughout the restart.

The transition game is obviously a huge part of the Bucks’ identity under Budenholzer and their opponents know that as well. And through their first three games, the Bucks have seen plenty of zone or switching defensive schemes from the likes of the Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets to throw them off their up-tempo nature when setting up their offense.

Even as offensive play has surged since plays restarted a week ago, the Bucks stand behind the pack in offensive efficiency as they currently rank 14th in that department by scoring 109 points per 100 possessions. Combine that with the execution and ball security issues that the Bucks have endured, as evidenced by having the second-worst turnover percentage (17.4 percent) thus far, and it’s fair to say that the Bucks have squandered a great deal of possessions through their first week of action.

So while taking shots very early in the clock helps in the Bucks’ ability to get back and establish their elite interior defense against their opponent, a key under Budenholzer, essentially punting on those offensive possessions has informed the stop-and-start nature of the Bucks’ offense so far in Orlando.

And as the Bucks’ run goes into the playoffs, and as they’ll soon go up against stronger defensive units and each successive possession has a little more weight behind them, those early threes will be even more crucial to what level of success the Bucks enjoy offensively. For context, the Bucks shot 33.6 percent on their 122 3-point attempts taken from 22-18 seconds in the shot clock during last year’s postseason run.

Surely, the Bucks won’t continue shooting this poorly in this regard and they’ll regress toward their mean eventually. But given that their efficiency on early threes in the shot clock have resembled their overall efficiency from long distance over the last two seasons, that sample size is too big to ignore.

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And it’s from that standpoint that the Bucks will have to improve their overall execution and seek a little more stability and creativity in order to jumpstart their offense as they continue to play the long game, with contending for an NBA title weighing heavy on their minds.

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