Milwaukee Bucks: Constructing an ideal playoff rotation

Milwaukee Bucks: Constructing an ideal playoff rotation – The wing rotation

With the starting lineup established, I had to decide which rotational players should receive playing time and how much. Since the Bucks are so deep at the wing position, it was the most difficult to narrow down.

Matthews, Connaughton, DiVincenzo, and Korver all present fine cases for playing time, and realistically with how Coach Bud typically operates, I’d expect their minutes may fluctuate game to game depending on who has the hot hand on a given night.

For this general framework, however, I analyzed how each wing duo performed together this season to determine any trends worth noting. Here is how each wing duo has fared so far this season:

As I stated in my methodology, I also looked at how these players fared with the starters I staggered. Here are each of these wings paired with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Eric Bledsoe:

As a general rule, I attempted to pair the wing duos who have played the best together and stay away from combinations that have not in my rotation, all while keeping in mind how they’ve fared with the staggered starters:

At the five-minute mark of the first quarter, Donte DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton are the first two wings I have coming off the bench. For as much as these two have seemingly bonded off the court, they also make up one of the stronger wing duos coming off the bench.

In 469 minutes together this season, Donte and Pat have posted a net rating of +9.5 as a duo. The only duo with a greater net rating was Donte and Wes Matthews, who both shared minutes in the starting lineup while Middleton was hurt for a month, skewing the data positively a bit.

Both Donte and Pat bring a lot of energy and can energize a bench unit. Additionally, they both play well with Giannis, so his minutes are often staggered with theirs.

A fringe wing player I decided to include was Korver, who has had a solid stretch since entering the Orlando bubble where others have struggled. Korver gives the bench a reliable shooting punch when he’s in the game, and he’s a consistent veteran who can get some buckets if the offense stagnates.

Korver’s played exceptionally well next to Khris Middleton this season, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when both are in the game, so I decided to pair them together whenever Korver subbed in.

One benefit of this duo is the ability to hide Korver defensively on the weaker offensive player at either the guard or wing position, with one of Bledsoe or Hill taking the stronger guard or Middleton taking the stronger wing. This is evident in the duo’s 102.0 defensive rating while Korver’s individual defensive rating is 103.7, the second-worst of the team’s wings, just a hair behind Connaughton.

A similar phenomenon occurs when Korver and Matthews play together. Since Matthews also has the ability to guard bigger wings like Middleton does, he can take the tougher wing assignment if necessary, as shown by the duo’s stellar defensive rating of 99.4 points per 100 possessions and +8.7 net rating. However, when you pair Korver with a less-versatile defender like DiVincenzo who struggles guarding larger wings, the defensive rating and net rating get significantly worse.

Korver is someone Coach Bud trusts and made an All-Star during their shared time in Atlanta, so it seems likely he’ll get some playoff run as we saw in Game 1. Along with that, the recent struggles of Donte DiVincenzo in the bubble have only strengthened Korver’s case.

I could definitely see Donte usurping Korver’s minutes again if and when he finds his groove, but for now, Korver is the tenth man in this playoff rotation.