Milwaukee Bucks: Constructing an ideal playoff rotation

Milwaukee Bucks: Constructing an ideal playoff rotation – The big man rotation

The Bucks’ big man rotation is much more solidified than its wings with both Giannis and Brook Lopez set to see the majority of minutes at the four and five spots.

However, there is still some debate regarding which reserves should see playing time and in what role. During the regular season, Ersan Ilyasova, Robin Lopez, and newcomer Marvin Williams have made up the Bucks’ usual bench big rotation, but strong wing depth and a shortened playoff rotation means making cuts somewhere.

Here’s the two-man lineup data for the Bucks’ big duos:

At the six-minute mark, I have my first and only reserve big in Marvin Williams coming off the bench to give Brook Lopez a breather. The rotation shows Giannis shifting down to the center position, but he and Marvin are really interchangeable at the 4 and the 5 positions, depending on who each is guarding at the time.

Though the sample is small, Giannis and Marvin have a net rating of +15.8 in 82 minutes as a duo since the latter has joined the team, with the majority of those minutes coming without another true big beside them. That’s a better net rating than either of the Bucks other two backup bigs next to Giannis.

This affords the Bucks the ability to play small while remaining large in size, with Marvin Williams listed at 6’8” and weighing in a 237 pounds while being able to guard multiple positions. While his offense has struggled since joining the Bucks, he’s shown more signs of comfort in the Bucks’ offense since entering the bubble.

Robin Lopez and Ilyasova were both notable cuts from this rotation model, although not that surprising given the need to shorten the rotation. Both have seen their roles diminish of late, especially after the addition of Marvin Williams off the buyout market.

Ilyasova has always struggled guarding some of the quicker 4s in the league and that weakness was amplified in last year’s playoffs when he was tasked with guarding guys like Pascal Siakam and Jayson Tatum. The addition of Williams gave the Bucks a much more versatile defender at the four when Giannis sits.

Since the Bucks’ road to the Finals will likely involve going through one or both of Tatum and Siakam, Williams is the better option from what we’ve seen.

Though Ersan should not see significant playoff run, Robin Lopez could certainly prove useful against certain matchups the Bucks might face. Though he’s excluded from this general rotation model, he can function as a valuable backup rim protector in the event the Bucks face teams with larger frontcourts like the 76ers, Raptors, or Lakers.

RoLo has played well next to Giannis this season, with the duo outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions, but he’s struggled mightily next to WIlliams thus far, giving up 11.8 points per 100 possessions to opponents when they share the court. However, the small sample of data for the latter pairing may be negatively skewed with a lot of the time they’ve spent together having come in Coach Bud’s infamous all-bench lineups.

In any case, Robin Lopez may still have a part to play when it’s all said and done for the Bucks this postseason, but the trio of Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Williams should get the majority of minutes in the Bucks’ big rotation.