If the Milwaukee Bucks are to keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to find improved shooting in Game 5, and potentially beyond that.
The Milwaukee Bucks‘ 2018-19 playoff run ended in the Conference Finals largely as the Bucks failed to make open shots, and the Toronto Raptors dealt with no such issues.
Although there have been a myriad of other issues to take the attention elsewhere, the truth is that same problem is playing a major role in their current predicament too. If the Milwaukee Bucks’ season ends at the Conference Semi-finals, as is incredibly likely, a large portion of the blame should fall on the team’s middling shooting performance.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo’s struggles and subsequent injury have provided major obstacles for the Bucks, as has the failure of Mike Budenholzer to get out of his way with his decision-making, but in a series that has consisted of four close and competitive games, regardless of what the final scores may suggest, Milwaukee’s failure to simply make more of their threes has been an issue.
Heading into Game 5, and preparing for the possibility that Giannis will be unable to play due to injury, the Bucks’ need for every bit of offense they can muster up has never been greater. That means they have to maximize their shooting, and that will likely other decisions to be made to set the tone.
For the series, the Bucks are shooting 34.1 percent from beyond the arc. That number is average to below average, but doesn’t really get to the root of Milwaukee’s problem in its own right.
Instead, a more focused look at the Bucks’ shooting breakdown reveals a couple of troubling details. Firstly, the Bucks have been making a meager 29.5 percent of their wide open three-point attempts, which is classified by NBA.com/stats as shots where the nearest defender wasn’t within six feet.
Secondly, the Bucks are making just 30.2 percent of their 10.8 pull-up threes per game. That particular shot has often been equivalent to a turnover when Giannis or Eric Bledsoe has let it fly early in the shot clock, and speaks to a larger issue with the Bucks’ need to get their good shooters taking more shots.
Brook Lopez, Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, and George Hill are all making over 40 percent from deep in this series. On the other end of the spectrum, Pat Connaughton is 0-of-6, Marvin Williams is at 14.3 percent, Bledsoe at 20 percent, Giannis at 21.4 percent, and Donte DiVincenzo at 28.6 percent.
In Game 5, the Bucks will need to do what they can to see some shots fall. One of the most obvious paths based on the percentages above would be to swap out Connaughton for Korver.
For all of the obvious defensive concerns with Korver, Connaughton has been awful in the Bucks’ last few games, doesn’t exactly solve problems defensively in his own right, and has been a major offensive negative.
Korver, on the other hand, provides offensive value with his spacing and gravity alone. Korver leads the Bucks in per game plus/minus in this series so far, with a differential of 14.1 between his and Connaughton’s numbers in that department.
If Giannis is out, the Bucks may well end up playing Middleton a lot more at the 4, and in that case Korver’s size over Connaughton would also seem like a potential plus if wings are required to move up a position.
More generally, there couldn’t be a better time for someone like Marvin Williams to catch fire for Milwaukee. Similarly, now would be a good time for Eric Bledsoe to pick up some long overdue restraint with his shot selection.
If the Bucks fail to make wide open shots and stink up Walt Disney World with misguided pull-ups, they’re likely going to be packing their bags and heading home late on Tuesday night.