Milwaukee Bucks: Semi Ojeleye could be the X-Factor this season

The biggest storyline around the Milwaukee Bucks this offseason was letting P.J. Tucker walk to the Miami Heat in free agency. It didn’t matter what the Bucks did after that, people only wanted to talk about them letting a player who started 19 of 23 playoff games and was the primary defender on Kevin Durant during a very tough series against the Brooklyn Nets go to another Eastern Conference rival.

And while I agree the loss of Tucker will be felt, it won’t be on the court as much. Where the Bucks will feel that loss is in the locker room and the toughness he brought to the team. All of that being said, though, on the court is a different story. Tucker was brought in to fill a role that the Bucks had long been searching to fill. A big wing that could knock down shots and provide a tough brand of defense. Tucker did half of that job admirably but was a complete non-entity on offense aside from grabbing offensive rebounds, which were helpful but not enough to make up for his downturn in 3-pointers.

In that same brand of player similar to Tucker and Marvin Williams, the Bucks brought in another big wing who can knock down 3s and play a hard-nosed style of defense: Semi Ojeleye. Although his role will be very similar to that of Tucker and Williams, Ojeleye is his own player. He’s a better defender than Williams, but not as good as Tucker. He’s a better offensive player than Tucker at this point, but not as good as Williams — though he didn’t do a ton in his limited time with the Bucks. He could be the X-Factor for the Bucks this season.

Why Semi Ojeleye could be the X-Factor this season for the Milwaukee Bucks

Now I don’t want to overstate Ojeleye’s importance to the Bucks’ success too much. Of course, they’re still going to be a championship contender whether or not Ojeleye provides solid rotation minutes and I’m not expecting him to be a full Tucker replacement, but his potential role could unlock a lot of things for the Bucks.

First, he’s going to be asked to play a lot of frontcourt minutes and help fill the void in that frontcourt depth. He’s a bigger body at 6’6″, 240 pounds, and is notably very strong. I mean, the man is absolutely jacked and is a much different body type than the previous players who filled this role for the Bucks. If he can be a reliable player in the frontcourt, that greatly reduces the minute load on three very important players for the Bucks, most importantly being Giannis Antetokounmpo.

But there’s a reason why the Boston Celtics didn’t want to bring back Ojeleye and why the Bucks were able to sign him to a veteran’s minimum contract. The 26-year-old, while providing solid defense, has never really found his footing on the offensive end.

One of the biggest value’s that Tucker provided was that he hit over 43 percent on corner 3s in the playoffs at around five attempts per game. As we saw, though, that dropped off to 32.2 percent on 2.6 attempts with the Bucks and it tanked his already limited offensive value.

That is where Ojeleye will need to have an impact, because his defense — while very good —  isn’t on the same level as Tucker’s and he doesn’t bring the veteran presence and toughness, so he’ll need to make up that value by knocking down 3s. Luckily for Ojeleye, he’s gotten better at that in the last couple of seasons, going from a sub-32 percent 3-point shooter in his first two seasons, to now being at over 37 percent combined over the last two seasons. He has his moments where he puts it all together in games but hasn’t been able to be consistent with his shot.

Being able to have Ojeleye be a consistent contributor also allows the Bucks to have another option defensively. A lot will be asked of Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton, but if they can bring a defender like Ojeleye off the bench, it would take a lot of the weight off their shoulders. Sure, the Bucks have other good-to-great defenders like Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez, but Ojeleye has a unique skill set that few other players on the roster have.

Bucks fans know how strong Ojeleye is and they’ve seen him in battles with Antetokounmpo to back that up, he can be a valuable member of this team. It all comes down to if he can make defenses pay for leaving him open. He will get plenty of open looks, probably more than were generated for him than in Boston due to the overall talent and scheme advantages the Bucks have. In our goals for Ojeleye, we have 38 percent as a mark for him to hit, which would be huge for his value to the rotation.

One of general manager Jon Horst’s biggest talking points has been about how he expects this team to be better but win differently than they did last year. Although that will be true for the most part with the addition of better offensive players like Rodney Hood and George Hill, the Bucks can still recreate some of what they did last year with Ojeleye.

Ojeleye could serve as a bridge between how the Bucks were successful during their championship run and how they want to be successful this year, that’s what makes him a potential X-Factor.

He may end up with the same fate as Torrey Craig, but if he can get those 3s to fall at a consistent rate, he should have a home in the Bucks rotation.