We are less than two weeks away from two very important dates. The first is October 19th when the Milwaukee Bucks will receive their championship rings and raise their banner against the Brooklyn Nets. The other is October 18th, which is the deadline for rookie extensions for players from the 2018 draft class.
For the Bucks, this is a rather pertinent deadline as they have two notable players who are up for extensions in Donte DiVincenzo and Grayson Allen. We recently looked at general manager Jon Horst’s comments regarding a possible extension for the two wings and, to no one’s surprise, he said that the extensions are a priority but not necessary. A diplomatic answer from the Bucks GM, but that’s to be expected when it comes to contract negotiations.
A former league executive recently shared his thoughts on the extension discussions for DiVincenzo and Allen, as The Athletic’s (subscription required) John Hollinger gave a rookie extension prediction for each of the eligible players, including both of the Bucks fourth-year wings. One of the predictions was relatively reasonable while the other was… a bit high.
There is certainly a case to bring both players back, I would even encourage such an action! However, at the price predicted, it would make things very hard for the Bucks to bring both players back, specifically one of them in particular.
Assessing John Hollinger’s contract predictions for the Milwaukee Bucks’ Grayson Allen and Donte DiVincenzo
Starting with Allen, Hollinger predicted a three-year, $16.5 million extension which would be an average of $5.5 million per season. He says that his prediction model was steadfast in giving Allen a three-year extension because he turns 26 soon, but that Allen would also return great value for that price point.
DiVincenzo’s prediction was a bit more generous, with Hollinger’s model suggesting a four-year, $99 million contract extension which is just under $25 million per season. If that seems like a lot of money, that’s because it is a lot for a player who has struggled with injuries in his first three seasons (and is recovering from one at the moment).
Now, I’m a big DiVincenzo fan, he’s a very important player for the Bucks and if he’s fully healthy for the playoffs, will provide a huge boost from what they were missing last year. DiVincenzo is probably getting a little undervalued from fans because the Bucks were able to win without him, so now there’s a belief that the Bucks don’t need him to win again.
Hollinger’s reasoning for such a high number is that DiVincenzo’s value would be much greater to another team because his skill set doesn’t fit what the Bucks need him to do. Hollinger suggests that DiVincenzo is much better as an on-ball shot-creator due to his handle and burst and that his average shooting numbers from deep don’t make him a great fit as an off-ball player.
Although I do like DiVincenzo’s ability as a secondary ball-handler, I don’t know about him being a full-time shot creator for another team, especially at that price. DiVincenzo’s turnover rate has been at the 30th percentile or lower in his first three seasons, per Cleaning the Glass and his finishing at the rim took a dramatic step back this season.
This isn’t the be-all, end-all but DiVincenzo as a pick and roll ball-handler generated 0.84 points per possession on about two possessions per game last season, per Synergy Sports. That number is in a similar range to the San Antonio Spurs Dejounte Murray and the Atlanta Hawks Kevin Huerter. The latter is in Holliger’s rookie extension column, with an extension worth less than DiVincenzo’s.
As an isolation player, DiVincenzo posted 0.67 points per possession on low volume. He was better in transition, but his efficiency numbers point to him being better as a cutter, spot-up shooter, and coming off handoffs.
This isn’t to say that DiVincenzo can’t be a good on-ball shot creator, but what team is paying him nearly $25 million to find out? That’s a huge risk for a player that has shown some flashes but never consistently. If the 3-point shooting that we saw from DiVincenzo last year is real, then that’s a good start as it was his lowest percentage of assisted 3s made at 78 percent (83rd percentile among wings, per Cleaning the Glass).
Most of what this comes from are likely the advanced numbers looking great for DiVincenzo having played on a championship contender in all three of his years in the NBA. Some of that is driven by DiVincenzo himself, but also the stars around him.
Hollinger notes that Allen would be a discount option to DiVincenzo and would provide more shooting, but less of everything else which I agree with. DiVincenzo is a far superior defender to Allen and is a better ball handler, but not worth a nearly nine-figure extension. I hope that DiVincenzo can remain a Buck going forward because he’s easily their best young asset and he’s a crucial player to their overall defensive scheme. In a potential series against the Nets, having DiVincenzo makes life much easier guarding the big three.
The 24-year-old deserves to get paid as a valuable member of the team, despite his injury history. He’s shown a lot of promise as a two-way player but just not at the number that Hollinger has predicted using his model. A number more along the lines of what the Toronto Raptors gave Gary Trent Jr. at four years, $54 million makes more sense.
As we get closer to the rookie extension deadline, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out between the Bucks and their two eligible players.