Milwaukee Bucks: Has Grayson Allen done enough to win starting job?

There’s been a lot of discussion surrounding the ongoing battle for the starting shooting guard spot in the Milwaukee Bucks lineup. Fans have taken their respective sides between Grayson Allen and Donte DiVincenzo, entrenching themselves one way or the other.

It’s been a one-sided battle to this point as DiVincenzo has missed all seven games so far while recovering from ankle surgery. Allen has started every game and has had to be the third option on offense out of necessity, becoming the third-leading scorer (not counting Jrue Holiday who has only played two games).

It’s not an ideal situation as this is probably too big of an offensive role for Allen (and DiVincenzo if he was forced into this same situation), but it’s given us a chance to get a real good look at what Allen can provide, what his strengths are, and where he is a bit limited.

Although we can’t take any stats from DiVincenzo this season, we can compare Allen’s early-season numbers to what DiVincenzo posted last season when he started all 66 games he played. We’re slowly nearing our way to DiVincenzo’s return, so this will be a debate that will pick up more steam as the season rolls on.

Comparing Grayson Allen’s 2021-22 numbers to Donte DiVincenzo’s 2020-21 for the Milwaukee Bucks starting shooting guard role

Yes, it’s a little unfair to compare a seven-game sample to a 66-game sample, but that’s what we’re working with and Allen has had a bigger role than DiVincenzo did last season. It’s not apples-to-apples but after comparing Allen’s numbers with a different team, this is a much more useful context.

Let’s start with the base counting stats that show up in the box score:

• Minutes per game: Allen, 29.3. DiVincenzo, 27.5.
• Points per game: Allen, 13.7. DiVincenzo, 10.4.
• Rebounds per game: Allen, 4.4. DiVincenzo, 5.8.
• Assists per game: Allen, 1.4. DiVincenzo: 3.1.
• Steals per game: Allen, 0.7. DiVincenzo: 1.1.

Even just looking at these numbers, you can see the differences between the two wings and why fans have their preferences for who would be a better fit within the starting unit alongside the Bucks’ three stars. I’ve said that Allen is a better shooter and scorer than DiVincenzo, but he closes the overall gap by being a better facilitator, ball handler, and rebounder.

Because the minutes are a little uneven, the gap widens in terms of the rebounding and assist numbers when looking at the per 36 stats. How about their efficiency numbers?

• 2-point percentage: Allen, 52.9 percent (2.4 attempts). DiVincenzo, 47.5 percent (3.9 attempts)
• 3-point percentage: Allen, 37.1 percent (8.9 attempts). DiVincenzo, 37.9 percent (5.2 attempts)
• Free throw percentage: Allen, 90.0 (1.4 attempts). DiVincenzo, 71.8 percent (1.1 attempts)
• True shooting percentage: Allen, 57.6 percent. DiVincenzo, 54.2 percent.

Once again we’re seeing that Allen is the better scorer and is having a great season on his 2-point attempts but it’s a touch misleading since around 80 percent of his shots have been 3-pointers this year. Per 36 minutes, Allen is shooting nearly 11 triples per game while DiVincenzo was around seven attempts per game. Although Allen’s 3-point percentage is slightly lower than DiVincenzo’s (thanks in part to a hot shooting night against the Jazz), it is not much of a concern as he has such a high volume and is getting 5.7 “wide open” 3-point shots (closest defender 6+ feet away) so he’ll start converting at a higher clip eventually.

DiVincenzo struggled mightily last season on his 2-point attempts, which impacted his true shooting numbers, and isn’t a great free-throw shooter. DiVincenzo’s percentage at the rim dropped by nearly 10 percent from his sophomore season (65.8 percent) to last season (57.0 percent). That is one of the biggest keys for him if he wants to earn his starting job back, he’ll need to convert on those chances around the basket closer to what he did in 2019-20.

Finally, let’s look at their respective advanced numbers and rate stats.

• Usage rate: Allen, 17.9 percent. DiVincenzo, 16.7 percent.
• Rebounding rate: Allen, 7.9 percent. DiVincenzo, 11.0 percent.
• Assist rate: Allen, 7.2 percent. DiVincenzo, 14.2 percent.
• Turnover rate: 4.6 percent. DiVincenzo, 12.5 percent.
• Win shares per 48 minutes: Allen, 0.106. DiVincenzo, 0.095.

These are interesting and underscore what DiVincenzo does better than Allen in regards to his assist and rebounding rates, but Allen still has the higher usage with a much lower turnover rate. That being said, he isn’t asked to handle the ball as much as DiVincenzo so it would make sense that his turnover rate would be decidedly lower. However, it’s still notable that he doesn’t turn it over as much while maintaining a usage rate that’s half a percentage point higher than the incumbent starter.

I have been on the side of DiVincenzo should return to the starting lineup once he’s fully healthy, but I am interested to see how he looks off the bench where he can handle the ball a bit more. If the Bucks want to continue to use George Hill in lineups with Holiday, then it would open more ball-handling responsibilities for DiVincenzo with the second unit.

I don’t know if there’s a truly wrong answer to this question, however. They both bring a different element to the starting lineup and could both play together in a small-ball closing lineup. I like that DiVincenzo can attack the rim off the dribble in limited attempts, but opposing defenses have to respect Allen more as a shooter, and scheming up as many wide-open looks as they have for him so far is a great predictive sign for the future. DiVincenzo also provides more versatility on defense, but Allen is no slouch on that end either, he’s just not as strong as his counterpart.

Regardless of who gets the starting job, the discussion and debate will continue throughout the season because of the different elements each player brings.