It’s no secret that the Milwaukee Bucks have had a big problem rebounding the ball to begin the season. It has been a big source of frustration for both fans and the team itself. Giannis Antetokounmpo is begging Brook Lopez to return and help clean up the glass and finish possessions.
The Bucks sit 28th in total rebounding rate and 25th in defensive rebounding rate. It has been one of their biggest strengths under head coach Mike Budenholzer but has abandoned them since Lopez has missed all but one game with a back problem that seemingly has no end in sight.
It has us scouring the free-agent big man market and even looking way-too-far ahead to see which bigs could be available in a trade down the line. We even looked at a potential in-house option with the Wisconsin Herd to help solve the rebounding problem.
I do agree that there is a rebounding option in-house, but it might be even more simple than bringing a player off the Herd. Bobby Portis has provided a lift since coming into the starting lineup.
Will Bobby Portis’ rebounding presence in the starting lineup be enough for the Milwaukee Bucks until Brook Lopez’s return?
The Bucks’ rebounding problems were at their worst when they didn’t have either Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis available and were starting either Giannis Antetokounmpo at center or his brother, Thanasis Antetokounmpo.
For all of the things that Giannis is great at, he is not someone who can rebound on his own without help. The ballyhooed Giannis-at-center lineups are historically very bad at cleaning up defensive possessions. Per Cleaning the Glass (subscription required), opponents rebounded their misses at a 26 percent rate across 477 possessions last season with Giannis at center, ranking in the 30th percentile.
The same is true this season, opponents are grabbing an offensive rebound on 27.1 percent of their misses with Giannis at center this season. Lineups with both Antetokounmpos have produced a 68.1 defensive rebound rate (the Minnesota Timberwolves hold the league’s worst defensive rebounding rate at 67.1 percent), per NBA.com/stats.
It was clear that Giannis needed another big man in the starting lineup to help ease the burden on him rebounding the ball. So, Budenholzer inserted Bobby Portis in the starting unit against the Washington Wizards.
In 102 minutes so far, the combination of Giannis and Portis have produced an 82.7 percent defensive rebounding rate, which would be by far the best in the league. Opponents are only grabbing an offensive board on 18.8 percent of their misses with those two on the floor together, ranking in the 98th percentile of all lineups.
They are also getting on the offensive glass, one of the strengths of their team from the championship run and an area where Portis thrives, posting a 29.4 percent offensive rebounding rate (a mark that would have them in the top ten league-wide).
The defensive rebounding numbers are better overall from last season where lineups featuring that duo allowed an offensive rebound on 22.4 percent of misses. The problem is when there is only one, or neither, of them on the floor. We know what the numbers look like when it’s Giannis at center, but when Portis is out there by himself, teams are grabbing an offensive rebound on over 36 percent of their misses. It’s really bad!
That is where they’re missing Lopez more than anything, is that it gives their rebounding some depth. The thin frontcourt was an issue I had coming into the season and you’re seeing why. It’s great that the Bucks are rebounding well with Giannis and Portis together, but the problem is they can’t play those two for 48 minutes together and that’s where things fall apart.
All of this isn’t to say that the Bucks should scrap the Giannis-at-center lineups forever, but that they can’t be used this frequently because then you start to see where they can get exposed. He has already played more possessions at center this season (572) than all of last season (477) and while it’s good to get him that experience as a traditional center, it’s not something he can do for long stretches of multiple games at a time (even though they are still winning Giannis’ minutes at center).
The Bucks do have an open roster spot but it would be a waste to sign someone who won’t have any chance to impact a playoff series. The simple fact is that the Bucks will have to deal with being outrebounded in the minutes where Giannis and Portis don’t play together. It’s not ideal, but as they get their team healthy, it will slowly start to matter less and less anyway.