Is Giannis Antetokounmpo being slept on in the early MVP race?

We’re nearly at the quarter-point of the 2021-22 NBA season and many fans are already staking their claims as to who should be MVP frontrunner in the early going. But is Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo not getting enough love so far?

As is the case with any MVP race, people have taken their sides. Some are on the side of Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry, others are backing the reigning MVP from the Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic (my early pick if I had to choose), or even the Brooklyn Nets’ Kevin Durant.

None of these are bad choices and I don’t think it’s always productive to have heated MVP discussions this early in the season, but it’s good to take stock at certain checkpoints in the season — such as the quarter pole.

And although I wouldn’t pick him this early, I don’t think Antetokounmpo has gotten enough credit for his early MVP campaign to this point. Typically when I see his name mentioned, especially on the MVP ladder on NBA.com, it is outside of the top five and there should be more focus on what he’s been doing this year.

Why is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s early MVP case is being slept on?

Let’s start with a baseline of what Antetokounmpo has done so far this season. He’s averaging 27.8 points, 12.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. Those base counting stats are very similar to what he posted in his first MVP season back in 2018-19, but there are two main differences.

The first is the efficiency stats. In the last three seasons, Antetokounmpo has averaged a near 60 percent effective field goal percentage. This season, he’s under 55 percent. His true shooting percentage in the last three seasons was 63 percent but it’s down to around 59 percent this season.

The main reason for this is his percentage on his 2-point attempts which is down to around 57 percent this season after being over 63 percent the last three seasons. This is largely due to Antetokounmpo shooting around eight percent worse on his short midrange shots (floater range) and about five percent worse at the rim compared to last year.

In explaining why Antetokounmpo is shooting worse from those areas, it also gives us the second difference in why the reigning Finals MVP isn’t getting the same love for MVP this year despite putting up similar numbers from 2018-19 and that is the team record.

The Bucks were the big surprise of that season and finished with the league’s best record, led by Antetokounmpo. This year, the Bucks have largely hovered around 0.500 due to injuries to their other starters, but that should also be a feather in Antetokounmpo’s cap. Despite having, at times, as many as three regular starters out for multiple games, Antetokounmpo was the one who kept the Bucks in games and dragged them to wins (his 47-point masterpiece against the Los Angeles Lakers being a great example).

Just how valuable to the Bucks has Antetokounmpo been so far this season while having to carry a roster that has primarily been role players? His net on/off per 100 possessions is plus-33.3, per Cleaning the Glass (subscription required). Across around 500 possessions without Antetokounmpo on the court, lineups without him are posting a combined minus-23.3 net rating.

You also have to consider that Antetokounmpo has, for the large part of the season, been playing a position he is not entirely comfortable with. Since losing Brook Lopez to a back injury after the first game of the season, Antetokounmpo has played over 60 percent of his minutes at center, by far the highest percentage of his minutes coming at the five in his career.

For all of the credit that Jokic has received for carrying the Denver Nuggets without Jamal Murray and now Michael Porter Jr (who wasn’t playing well when he was out there), Antetokounmpo’s meant just as much to the Bucks so far.

It almost feels as if the sentiment of “well, the Bucks are injured so we can’t take what they’re doing seriously yet” from some of the national media has overshadowed how good Antetokounmpo has been.

No, the Bucks haven’t had the team they would have liked, but Antetokounmpo has been admittedly playing through injury to keep the Bucks afloat in the early season. That has to be taken into account when discussing MVP.

If Antetokounmpo hadn’t been at his absolute best through this stretch of games, the Bucks could have been looking at an even bigger hole than just a couple of games under 0.500 which would have greatly impacted their playoff seeding down the road.

In a recent interview with GQ, he caused a bit of a stir when he said he’s looking for his next challenge. Right now his challenge is to repeat as champs and he has followed through by carrying the team through this rough stretch of games.

Antetokounmpo shouldn’t be the frontrunner for MVP but he also has a stretch of games coming up against some weaker competition to not only pad his stats but to add some wins to get back into the thick of the MVP conversation.