How George Hill’s return impacts the Milwaukee Bucks guard rotation

For all of the (justified) hoopla around Brook Lopez’s return last night against the Utah Jazz, I was also interested in seeing what George Hill‘s return meant for the Milwaukee Bucks.

There were rumors that they were sniffing around some backup point guards around the trade deadline, in part due to Hill’s neck injury and also because of how he’s shot the ball this season. Well, the deadline came and went without a significant move there, but they did pick up Jevon Carter after he was waived by the Brooklyn Nets.

Carter has been fantastic in his first nine games as a Buck and that has muddied the waters for what head coach Mike Budenholzer’s guard rotation will look like as we head down the stretch.

What will the Milwaukee Bucks’ guard rotation look like with George Hill back?

In the past this season, I’ve defended Hill and disagreed with the idea that they needed to get an upgrade for him. Although he hasn’t hit the 3 well this season (he’s been right around 30 percent all season), he has contributed in other areas.

He’s shooting 76 percent at the rim this season and is still getting a decent amount of his shot attempts around the basket (32 percent, per Cleaning the Glass). Granted, he’s not breaking anyone down off the dribble and penetrating, but that he’s still finding ways to move off-ball and get those shots around the basket is great.

He’s also been a very valuable defender. According to 538’s RAPTOR metric, he’s been worth plus-2.4 defensive RAPTOR this season, which is one of the higher numbers in the league for point guards. The context here is that the catch-all defensive metrics aren’t great for showcasing the true defensive impact players have, but it gives you a broad idea of whether a guy is good or bad.

He also still has the highest individual net rating for guys that have played at least 40 games at 14.2. He’s not the sole reason for that, but again, it’s a good sign that the Milwaukee Bucks consistently win his minutes.

So that puts them in an interesting spot with how well Carter has played.

Last night against the Jazz, Carter played over 20 minutes for the fourth time as a Buck while Hill played around 13 in his first game back.

Going forward, you’re likely going to see Hill play more than Carter, even if that doesn’t make some fans happy. Yes, Carter has shot the ball very well in a limited sample but that’s not going to continue.

His defensive impact is impressive and what has (likely) earned him a spot in the rotation for at least the rest of the regular season (which also will keep the 35-year-old Hill’s minutes down).

The good thing is that both guys can play alongside Holiday. The combination of Hill and Holiday still has the highest net rating of any two-man lineup combination at 31.0. Carter and Holiday haven’t had that type of success, but they’ve been solid in their limited possessions together with a 9.3 net rating.

My expectation for Carter’s role all along was as someone who could fill a type of specialist role to come in, pick up full court, and be disruptive. The shooting has given him more of an opportunity than I expected, but if he cools off, then we’ll see how much Budenholzer will go to him.

Listen, I’d be more than happy to see Carter continue to shoot the hell out of the ball and remain an important part of the rotation. I may be his biggest fan! But I don’t see Budenholzer going away from a trusted veteran so quickly for a guy who has been here less than 10 games so far.

This does serve as a terrific audition for next season and beyond for Carter, though. Hill’s old and Carter could seamlessly transition into the backup point guard role next season if he comes back. For now, though, the backup role will remain Hill’s job.

This is what could be described as “a good problem to have” as the Milwaukee Bucks sort through their rotations as we head toward the playoffs.