Biggest risk of Jon Horst era is staring Bucks right in the face

Trading for Anthony Davis has disaster written all over it.
Cleveland Cavaliers v Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers v Milwaukee Bucks | Stacy Revere/GettyImages

The Milwaukee Bucks plan to be significant buyers, not sellers, in the trade market. One name that could be available is Mavericks forward Anthony Davis. Pairing Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo would give the Bucks an unstoppable frontcourt duo, provided both of them were ever healthy enough to share the court. 

Availability concerns are perhaps the biggest, but far from the only concern, lurking in that fantasy. Bucks general manager Jon Horst has had some big swings and misses, but trading for Davis would be his most disastrous yet.

Davis deal could make Turner signing look like child's play 

The scary part, the thing that could put Davis on the team's radar, is that Milwaukee fans all know Horst has a penchant for star chasing. This season, the Bucks have indicated that they plan to make a "significant" move. Davis is no one's first choice, but stranger things have happened than the notion of Horst swinging a deal for the aging ex-Laker. It's in the realm of possibility.

It would also create a monster. Davis' injury history is well-chronicled. Since arriving in Dallas last February, Davis has played 20 games as a Maverick. Even when healthy, he is a nightly question mark on the injury report. He returned late last month after a four-week absence but sat out Monday with a calf issue. He has played more than 62 games just once since 2017-2018. Now, Davis is 32 and in his 14th season. He's not going to get more durable. 

Davis is still an All-Star-caliber player when on the court, which is why Horst could be tempted. In 11 games this year, Davis is averaging a 20-point double–double and 3.2 assists on 51.7 percent shooting. While nowhere near the elite defender of his prime, he is still a high-level rim protector. His 1.6 blocks per game this season would be only the third time in his career that he has averaged under two. 

If there is a team that should trade for Davis, it's not the Milwaukee Bucks. Combined with Giannis' own injury track record, a factor of growing concern in recent years, Davis's lack of durability would be untenable. With his contract and the outgoing assets necessary to acquire him, the risk is simply too much to accept.

Without involving a third team, the only way Milwaukee could even match Davis' $54 million salary would be to send out both Myles Turner and Kyle Kuzma, plus additional filler. For positional reasons, too, Turner would almost certainly be gone. Not that the Bucks couldn't flip him for the right return, but this would feel like a bad case of tilt.

Would they really jump ship on Turner, 27 games in, for an aging, unreliable Davis? What happens when he plays half or fewer of the Bucks' games? As disappointing as Turner has been, it's hard to imagine that a half-dose of Davis would be better, or even close to it. If Giannis is frustrated now, would he be content then?

Davis doesn't even fit the profile or skill set the roster needs. He isn't young. He's slow and plodding, the type of big man the Bucks moved away from when they let Brook Lopez walk. Davis doesn't even want to play center, but he would have no choice in Milwaukee.

He can still score, true, but he's not a shot creator off the bounce. He isn't the playmaking wing the Bucks need more than anything else. Davis isn't even a bona fide floor spacer; he's making threes at a 31.8 percent clip this season, his highest since 2019-20. 

There would be formidable financial consequences. Including a player option in 2027-28, Davis has $175 million on his contract. The Bucks would be paying that money for one player, not two or three. They already have $113 million in Damian Lillard's dead money on the books. The burden of Davis would all but immobilize the payroll. 

In a Turner-plus-Kuzma package, the Bucks would be turning multiple rotation players into one semi-available, aging star. Depending on Davis' health, they might get the worst end of that deal even without sacrificing pick swaps or young players. If a third team got involved for salary purposes, Milwaukee would have to pay them off via additional NBA talent or draft assets. 

Many pundits blasted the Turner signing as reckless. Trading for Davis could make that look like child's play. The Bucks had to waive and stretch Lillard to sign Turner, but Davis makes double Turner's paycheck. Milwaukee would likely be worse off in the future and might not even benefit in the present. Hopefully Bucks fans can trust Horst to avoid making a call on this one. 

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