It's only been six games. We know that.
But the closer we get to maybe the 10-game mark, the sample size gets bigger and bigger, and the truth becomes increasingly clear. Milwaukee's early-season success isn't a fluke, and the underlying numbers show a team built for sustainable winning.
As it currently stands, the Bucks are a net-plus 5.4, which is good for seventh in the league after six games. That's elite company when you consider they're still integrating new pieces and figuring out rotations. Teams don't accidentally stumble into seventh-ranked net rating.
The Bucks' early-season stats betray a formidable two-way team
Here's where it gets really interesting: Their 61.4 effective field goal percentage and 63.4 true shooting are both the best in the league, which means that the game plan to surround Giannis Antetokounmpo with shooting is working.
Furthermore, the Bucks are giving up just 47.3 points in the paint per game, which is just decimal points away from the tenth-ranked Portland Trail Blazers at 46.7. That's a massive development for a team that's been getting destroyed inside for years despite sporting the best help defender in basketball.
To put that number into perspective, last year, nine of the Top 10 teams in points allowed in the paint won at least 40 games. Six finished the season with a record of at least 48-34 or better.
So in short, you protect the paint, you win games. The Bucks learned this well during the days of Mike Budenholzer, and it's encouraging to see them go back to a system that saw them dominate the league for years. If the numbers are any indication, the new system is working -- because now they have the services of Myles Turner to protect the rim.
Up and down the advanced stats, their competence shines through. Their offensive rating of 120.8 points per 100 possessions is 4th in the league. It's clear the shooting around Giannis has completely transformed how defenses can guard Milwaukee. You can't pack the paint anymore without getting torched from three. You can't help off shooters without giving Giannis free lanes to the rim.
What makes these numbers sustainable is that they're not built on unsustainable hot shooting or insane luck. The paint defense comes from legitimate rim protection and better rotations. The offensive efficiency comes from smart shot selection and spacing. These are foundational improvements, not statistical noise.
Now obviously, six games is still early. It's entirely possible that the hot shooting of AJ Green and Ryan Rollins will fall back down to earth. Or perhaps a key piece, God forbid, gets sidelined with injury.
But at the end of the day, metrics don't lie. Milwaukee looks like a team that can maintain this level of play over 82 games and into the playoffs. The infrastructure is sound, the system is working, and the talent is finally aligned with the strategy.
If the Bucks can keep their effective field goal percentage and true shooting near the top of the league while maintaining top-10 paint defense, they're going to win a lot of basketball games.
And when it happens, that's not going to be blind, delusional hope from a desperate fan base anymore. That's going to be evidence.