If the Bucks choose the wrong guard in the offseason, they’ll regret it fast

The answer to Milwaukee's offseason guard dillemma couldn't be more obvious.
Houston Rockets v Toronto Raptors
Houston Rockets v Toronto Raptors | Mark Blinch/GettyImages

The Milwaukee Bucks are about to face a tough call between two key guards. And if they get it wrong, they’ll feel it for 82 games.

Gary Trent Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr. are both hitting the market. Both will want a raise. And Milwaukee, with limited spending power and even less room for error, can’t afford to miss. But if it really comes down to keeping just one, the answer shouldn’t take more than a minute: keep Trent. Let KPJ walk.

Forget the contracts. Forget the names. Start with what the Bucks actually need.

Ignore the upside: Gary Trent Jr. gives the Bucks what they actually need

Milwaukee’s problem isn’t shot creation; it’s trust.

They need guards who can stay on the floor, hold up defensively, make smart decisions, and complement Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. They need spacing without sacrificing toughness, and reliability without the drama. Gary Trent Jr. checks more of those boxes than KPJ ever has.

Trent, still just 26, is a proven floor spacer and capable point-of-attack defender. He shot 41.6 percent from three last season and has averaged over 17 points per game as a starter. He doesn’t need to dominate touches to be effective, and fits cleanly in lineups with Giannis. He’s a plug-and-play guard who can slide between positions, survive in the playoffs, and hold his own in closing lineups. Even factoring in his inconsistencies, his versatility has been second to none for this Bucks team.

Kevin Porter Jr., for all his talent, has never been that guy.

There’s no denying KPJ’s raw skill: he’s a dynamic scorer with real passing flashes. For a time, he showed flashes of being the X-factor that this Milwaukee Bucks team had been missing. But at the end of the day, he’s prone to freelancing on both ends and has yet to prove he can stay locked in for a full season. Even if you set that aside and look strictly at on-court fit, KPJ doesn’t offer the same stability, spacing, or defensive effort that Trent provides.

Yes, Trent is going to want real money—maybe even starter-level money. But so will KPJ, who opted out of a player-friendly deal and is clearly betting on himself. If the Milwaukee Bucks are going to stretch for one of them, it has to be the guy they can trust in April. Not the one who might still be figuring things out in February.

Perhaps we're always going to think about that one Trent turnover in the Bucks' last playoff game against the Pacers. But in the grand scheme of things, Milwaukee doesn’t have time for reclamation projects. This team is on the clock. They need contributors, not gambles. The safe bet is also the smart one.

Pay Gary Trent Jr. Let KPJ chase upside somewhere else. The Bucks can’t afford to get cute—not with the Giannis window already narrowing.