In the wake of Giannis Antetokounmpo's latest injury, he and the Milwaukee Bucks may finally be nearing the split the league has long awaited.
Whatever happens, one thing the Bucks cannot do is turn to discussions with the New York Knicks, Giannis' preferred destination as of last summer. Instead, they should dial Pat Riley's Miami Heat, who have young players and draft capital to provide the foundation of a return package. In that regard, the Knicks' cupboard is all but bare.
Heat have menu of picks and players that New York can't match
While it's quite possible that a trade won't take place until the offseason, a deal by the February 5 deadline is still in play. In that case, Miami holds an even stronger advantage over asset-strapped suitors like New York.
Right now, the Knicks do not have a tradeable first-round pick apart from Washington's top-eight protected selection in 2026. That pick is highly unlikely to convey; the Wizards sit last in the East and have every incentive to lose. If it doesn't, it will convert to second-rounders in '26 and '27.
Miami, meanwhile, can trade its 2029 first-rounder and either of its 2031 or 2032 picks. The roster also includes a bevy of young talent nowhere to be found in New York. The Heat could package any of Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, or Jaime Jacquez in an outgoing haul to the Bucks. While they would likely be reluctant to part with last year's draftees, Kasparas Jakucionis and Pelle Larsson could also be on the table.
The best the Knicks can do is Miles McBride. That's about it in terms of the young talent on their roster.
Miami would have no problem hashing together the salaries to match Giannis. Andrew Wiggins and Terry Rozier as filler, plus Ware, Jacquez, and picks? With just two first-rounders involved, the Bucks might need one extra sweetener. Iron out the finer details, and that could work as an incoming haul in exchange for Giannis, Gary Trent Jr., and Amir Coffey, for example. Throw in whatever small Bucks salaries you want.
By themselves, the Knicks can't compete with anything the Heat can offer. Karl-Anthony Towns, McBride, and a bucket first-round swaps and second-rounders? Those swaps may well be worthless given the Knicks' extended contention window, zapping the value of any future picks. Okay, fine. Include Kyle Kuzma in the deal to bring back OG Anunoby? None of that is the least bit intriguing.
Postponing a trade until the summer could work in New York's favor, since then they would gain access to their own picks in 2026 and 2033. But Miami would also have more bullets to work with, getting more tradeable firsts, plus their stash of young players. However you slice it, the Knicks can't hold a candle to the more competitive offers Milwaukee should field for their two-time MVP.
Stay off the phone with New York. If talks indeed heat up before the deadline, the Bucks might want to put Miami on speed dial.