The Nuggets are officially in a financial crunch after matching the Thunder's offer sheet on restricted free agent Spencer Jones. Jones' 2-year/$12 million deal instantly put Denver into the second apron, adding a whole host of other restrictions for team-building. As a result, the Nuggets could look to cut salary elsewhere including a possible sign-and-trade of Peyton Watson.
The Bucks couldn't be happier about Denver's situation
Milwaukee has been reportedly interested in Watson as a restricted free agent throughout the offseason, but he often took a backset on their list of targets because the Nuggets seemed intent on bringing him back. However, the Nuggets are now approaching a new level of financial pressure that could force their hand to trade away pieces.
For their own part, the Bucks may have received more clarity on their offseason targets which makes Watson more appealing. He's been a talented defender since he came into the league 4 years ago, but also flashed new offensive skills last season before an injury cut his campaign short. Watson increased his scoring average to nearly 15 points per game (almost double his previous career-high of 8 points per game) while shooting 49% from the field and 41% from three.
To make it even better, Watson took on additional load when Nikola Jokic was out with injury and excelled during a critical stretch. Over those 15 games, he put up 22 points per game while maintaining excellent shooting splits and creating a lot of his own looks. Watson likely won't have much opportunity to play as a primary option in Denver going forward, but the Bucks would be more than happy to have him try leading the Milwaukee offense.
The Nuggets could get desperate quickly
As it stands, the Nuggets could wind up paying a huge amount between the looming second apron and repeater luxury tax offenses. If they brought Watson back on a deal around $23 million per season, which he can get from other teams, the Nuggets would be looking at $238 million in luxury tax alone - not to mention their team's actual payroll. That can obviously motivate the Nuggets to part ways with Watson and make sure they get something back rather than risk losing him for nothing in free agency.
The Bucks can use this newfound urgency to their advantage and acquire Watson for a cheaper price than expected. Earlier in the offseason, it seemed like any Watson suitor would have to give up significant draft capital to pry him away from the Nuggets. But Milwaukee now might be able to get away with less draft picks as long as they can offer financial relief.
Landing in Milwaukee could also be a big win for Watson. He would have more opportunity to shine as an offensive creator on a rebuilding team, and the Bucks should have more flexibility to pay him what he wants than the Nuggets. But this deal still can't go through unless the Nuggets agree.
In Denver's system build around Jokic, the Nuggets may feel that Jones provides 80% of Watson's production at a fraction of the cost. That should make it more logical to trade him for cheaper contracts and future assets, which is exactly where the Bucks can help.
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