Bucks' plan to keep Giannis falls apart without this one trade

This needs to be Step 1 of the process.
Mar 22, 2025; Sacramento, California, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Mar 22, 2025; Sacramento, California, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Bucks are reportedly hoping they can convince Giannis Antetokounmpo to stay by outlining the benefits of a gap year during the 2025-26 season. This is an interesting approach from them, but it will mean very little unless they make one move: trading for the rights to their own 2026 first-round pick.

Right now, the New Orleans Pelicans can swap draft selections with the Bucks next year, a holdover detail from the 2020 Jrue Holiday blockbuster. This means that if Milwaukee finishes with a first-round pick than New Orleans, it will go to the Pelicans. 

That isn’t a problem if the Bucks remain on their title-contention track. But they’re apparently exploring the gap-year option instead. As Marc Stein recently wrote for the The Stein Line: “A significant aspect of the Bucks' pitch, then, is selling Antetokounmpo on the idea of a so-called gap year that enables them to retool the team while allowing him to maintain his one-team affiliation after 12 seasons in Milwaukee. The very forgiving East landscape certainly enhances the notion that it wouldn't take years (with an s) to return to contention.”

This plan can work. But the Bucks are going to need the Pelicans help.

The Bucks need their draft pick back to successfully pitch Giannis

Make no mistake, the only way for Milwaukee to turn in a successful gap year is to get its pick back from New Orleans. 

Sure, the Bucks can tout the development of young players and future flexibility in meetings with Giannis. But they don’t have enough of either for him to willingly punt on a year of meaningful basketball. 

Milwaukee’s most intriguing under-25 player right now is either Ryan Rollins or Andre Jackson Jr. And since the team only has the No. 47 pick in this year’s draft, that’s probably not going to change. Meanwhile, though the Bucks could have more spending power during 2026 free agency, the salaries of Giannis and Damian Lillard that season will combine to reach $108.3 million. This isn’t a team that will be positioned to sign a superstar.

All of which makes the re-acquisition of next Junes’ draft pick imperative to any gap year. Milwaukee should be looking to tank its heart out, land a top lottery selection, and then dangle it in trade talks to materially improve the roster around Giannis ahead of 2026-27.

Here’s how the Bucks can get their pick pack from the Pelicans

Getting the Pelicans to play ball with this plan can seem daunting. Why would they want to surrender the rights to the Bucks’ 2026 pick if it projects to land high in the lottery?

Well, for starters, New Orleans isn’t in line to be a playoff team itself. Zion Williamson’s future and health are up in the air, and Dejounte Murray may not play at all next season after suffering an Achilles injury. There’s no guarantee the Pelicans will be better than the Bucks, which nukes the value of that swap.

Milwaukee also won’t have the same incentive to be bad if it doesn’t have that pick. Tanking only makes sense if it’s in their possession. The Pelicans can pass on trading it back, but that invites the Bucks to be as good as possible, which also destroys the value of the swap.

If Milwaukee is serious about a gap year, it can offer New Orleans a substitute swap in 2031 to replace the 2026 obligation. It’s a risk to give up the rights to a pick so far out, but the Bucks can stomach the downside when it means holding onto Giannis. Offering that 2031 swap might even get the Pelicans to give back the rights to Milwaukee’s picks in both 2026 and 2027, which would open up even more long-term possibilities.

Giannis needs to be on board with a gap year

This all means nothing if Giannis isn’t willing to go through a gap year. He is among the NBA’s most competitive stars, and may not be too keen on going through even a single rebuilding season when he turns 31 next December.

Still, if a gap year is the Bucks’ pitch, they need to do it properly. Their current situation consists of selling Giannis on…low-end young players, and keeping head coach Doc Rivers. That’s not good enough. 

Selling Giannis on increased flexibility, a healthy Damian Lillard, and the integration of a potential top-five pick as a contributor or trade asset, though? That’s much better—and more likely to keep the dream of Antetokounmpo staying in Milwaukee alive.