The rematch between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers will kick off this season's NBA Playoffs on Saturday. There are many storylines surrounding the rivalry, but also keys for how each team can come out on top and advance to the second round.
Milwaukee took the regular season series 3-1, however, the big story is surrounding star point guard Damian Lillard and his health. The Bucks announced that he would not be available for the start of the playoffs but are hopeful he does return this postseason.
Indiana finished the season 50-32 to earn the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and get home-court advantage over the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been playing some of his best basketball of late, and with him, anything is possible for Milwaukee.
So many things can change the course of a playoff series, so here are three of the biggest X-factors for the Milwaukee Bucks in their rematch with the Pacers.
1. Kevin Porter Jr.'s current groove
Perhaps the steal of the NBA Trade Deadline was the Bucks acquiring Kevin Porter Jr. for MarJon Beauchamp, and it has been better than expected for Milwaukee. He has been a reliable scorer off the bench and when starting, earning him a spot in their closing lineups. Since arriving in Wisconsin, he is averaging 11.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals on excellent splits of .494/.408/.871.
Without Lillard, Porter will be trusted even more and asked to shoulder the offense alongside Giannis. He has no playoff experience and has been a revelation, and the Milwaukee Bucks hope he will bring his energy and fearlessness into the postseason against one of the fastest and youngest teams in the league.
We aren't sure whether he will start at point guard or if it will go to Ryan Rollins. Porter will be key in this series and give Giannis much-needed support. Slowing the game down is what the Bucks have to do; otherwise, they will just get run off the court by the Pacers.
It's a lot of pressure to put on the 24-year-old, but the Milwaukee Bucks need him.
2. Guarding Myles Turner
Pacers center Myles Turner just had his best 3-point shooting season of his NBA career, hitting a phenomenal 39.6 percent. There is a chance he gets the Giannis assignment, but the Pacers will likely look to make the rest of the Milwaukee Bucks beat them and bet on the role players missing shots.
From the Milwaukee Bucks' point of view, guarding Turner will be a huge factor in this series. Brook Lopez, on numerous occasions this season, has struggled on the glass and found himself being caught out by a more athletic big dragging him out to the perimeter. They need to find a way to slow Turner down.
Recently, we have seen a strong Bucks lineup of Giannis, Bobby Portis, Porter, Trent and AJ Green. It has allowed them defensively to zone up and go all-out with athleticism to stop teams. Portis and Giannis can be used together to guard Turner, and the versatile guards also allow for easier switching. Offensively, this lineup has worked, too, with the focus being on Giannis and the other four players having good shot-making abilities at each level. This lineup could be the key.
Jericho Sims' return could also be a factor in how they slow Turner down from deep.
3. Health
Perhaps the most obvious of all the X-factors is health. Every playoff run, there is the conversation around teams being "lucky" with opposing players being injured. The main one for this series is, of course, Damian Lillard. If the Milwaukee Bucks can hang with the Pacers (or even beat them) before Lillard returns, it would put them in a good position, and confidence will be high.
Sims is set to return for the playoffs. His athleticism and versatility can match anyone on the Pacers, and he would give the Bucks another option in the frontcourt with Portis also back. On the flip side, there are slight questions over Pascal Siakam's health. Reports are that he will be fine for the start of the playoffs, but he did miss the Pacers' last two games due to right elbow management. If he isn't at 100 percent, it could change the game plan for both teams.
Milwaukee hasn't had an injury-free postseason for several years now. Even their 2021 championship saw Giannis go down in the Eastern Conference finals. Health must come first with Lillard but the reports are positive and he is making progress. Sims being back is a real series changer and can give the Bucks so much more versatility.
Stay tuned for more Milwaukee Bucks news and analysis.