To maximize the new-look roster model, the Milwaukee Bucks will need a number of players to take a step forward in 2025-26. One player the team has high hopes for in that regard is shooting guard AJ Green, set to enter his fourth season. So far, he has yet to average double figures, but a major leap may be coming, potentially one that propels him into award consideration.
The suggestion seems wild because it is, but could an upper percentile outcome see him competing by season's end for a few Most Improved Player votes? Though rare, such a jump is not without precedent. If Green's elite on-off metrics and Doc Rivers' favor are any indicator, he is primed for a major boost in playing time that would only help his case.
Last year's winner offers role player template for Bucks' Green
M.I.P.s tend to fill box scores. When Atlanta's Dyson Daniels won the award in 2025, he became just the second player in the last 12 years not to average 20 points per game. Instead, he won over voters by combining much-improved offense and defensive stardom. Guards rarely win Defensive Player of the Year, but his three steals per game put him in the running for that honor as well.
In year three, Daniels jolted his scoring from 5.8 points per game to 14.1. He made similar, if more modest, strides in rebounds, assists, and shooting efficiency. Box-score watching might be a superficial way of determining awards, but volume absolutely matters to the award committees. Is Daniels' blueprint one that Green can replicate in any way?
Let's be realistic: probably not. The intriguing thing is that, although it may be highly improbable, a similar manifestation isn't out of the question. Green isn't near Daniels' level defensively, but he is underrated on that end of the floor. He is worlds better than Daniels as a shooter. The key to contending for an MIP award is convincing voters that he is more than just a marksman.
Green should have the opportunity. During Summer League, Doc Rivers named Green among the Bucks he expects to break out in 2025-26. Because of the roster's vulnerability at small forward, depending on how Rivers decides to roll, Milwaukee could end up using a lot of three-guard lineups including Green. He's a bit undersized for a wing, but he can hold his own against larger players. His defensive chops will not only enhance his case, but they will also help keep him on the floor.
Green is Bucks' secret weapon
Green has grown quite a bit already from the player he was as a rookie. Last year for the Bucks, he was deceptively impactful as a reserve. Per 100 possessions, he registered an on-off differential of +7.3, second on the team behind Giannis Antetokounmpo's +11.8.
Over the course of a hypothetical season, the Bucks would have been 18 expected wins better with Green on the court versus off. Surprisingly, he contributed more value on defense, as opposing teams scored 6.6 points fewer per 100 possessions with Green in the lineup.
That likely has something to do with who else was there. Green is a great fit alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, so they're often on the court together. But still. Green's metrics reveal an extremely valuable player, one who should see his minutes shoot even higher this season.
En route to winning the award, Atlanta's Daniels enjoyed over a 50 percent increase in minutes per game. Green probably won't make quite that jump, but he is due for another bump after doubling his nightly playing time last year, up to 22.7 minutes per contest.
While Daniels started every game he played, Green will likely begin the season off the bench. That could change, though, giving his volume stats an even higher ceiling. In the end, becoming a starter is something of a prerequisite for consideration.
What would his stat-line have to look like? Green actually averaged more points, 7.4, than Daniels did in his pre-MIP season. He is disadvantaged in other areas: rebounding, assists, and steals. Lethal 3-point shooting is one thing that could help Green pile up points without attempting all that many shots.
A career 42-percent sniper, he shot a tick better than that on career-best volume last season. He should only see his attempts go up. Boston's Payton Pritchard provides a helpful basis of comparison. Although Pritchard won Sixth Man of the Year, not MIP, he did so in large part by simply doing more of what he does best, which is making 3-pointers.
Playmaking progress, plus one major motivator, could be deal breakers
Green isn't a point guard, of course, and he would need to substantially improve his skills as a shot creator, passer, and ball-handler. He probably isn't ready to take an otherworldly playmaking step. But without a true point guard on the roster, he will have more chances to be involved as a facilitator, and he does have room for real progress.
Say Green, not Gary Trent Jr., is the wing who takes the biggest step for the Bucks this season. Suppose he nearly doubles his scoring, averages three assists, and four to five rebounds while leading the league in 3-point percentage and being an even better defender. Even that might not be enough to win, but it's enough to put him in that conversation.
The bottom line is that there are loads of players ahead of Green. From an objective point of view, he is not a realistic candidate. That doesn't mean he can be entirely dismissed as a conceivable long shot.
There's also the fact that the Bucks have still not inked Green, a pending free agent, to an extension. If that's still the case to begin the season, his unlikely argument only becomes more interesting. Playing for either an extension in Milwaukee or a contract somewhere else could be one fiery motivator to level up his game.