The Milwaukee Bucks closed out their latest stretch by beating the Magic and Thunder, stoking positive momentum in a recently spiraling season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return directly out of the All-Star break or soon after. Could they claw their way into the Play-in, win the required games, and secure the eight-seed in the Eastern Conference?
Maybe now is not the time to rain on that parade.Â
The reality, though, is that at 23-30, the Bucks still have a rather steep hill to climb. The notion that they might tank for draft position, holding out Giannis the rest of the way, emerged for a reason. It could still apply if the post-All-Star break play starts poorly.
The Bucks will not pursue that path any time soon. General Manager Jon Horst made that much clear in a radio interview earlier this week.Â
Our goals were to be a contending, playoff team. That is still within reach for us. We're just outside the Play-in opportunity, and really within reach of a solidified playoff spot, but we've got a lot of work left to do. The next couple of weeks are really important as we try to climb back in this thing.Â
Right now, this feels like the correct approach. What the organization can't do is get drunk on sporadic winning. Let's face it. Being stubborn would invite the ultimate disaster: worse draft odds on top of a frustrated, disillusioned Greek Freak.
Bucks would do well to keep a flexible mindset
Fair enough: committing fully to win-now mode is the Bucks' best shot to keep Giannis happy right now. That matters. Cam Thomas and Ousmane Dieng are exciting additions. The reshuffled roster could, alongside Giannis' return, push Milwaukee over the top.Â
That doesn't mean the Bucks shouldn't be ready to pivot. Despite winning five of six games, they are still a game and a half behind Atlanta in 10th. They are four and a half games behind Miami in eighth. Everyone ahead of them is incentivized to win. Finishing ninth, needing to go 2-0 in the Play-in to advance, is probably the best-case outcome.Â
Horst, Giannis, and the team must consider: Is it enough to capture a Play-in spot and bow out in the tournament? Would doubling down and failing to pay it off leave Antetokounmpo more frustrated than ever? Would he be irreversibly disillusioned with the current team's inability to truly contend?Â
That result would hurt their draft odds by default. Whether they try to win or not, the Bucks probably won't drop beneath the teams already behind them in the lottery standings. They could conceivably lose more games than Memphis if the Grizzlies win a few by accident. Still, it isn't likely.
That's not the main issue. The real downside to going all-in on the Play-in is the sacrifice in draft day upside. Say the Bucks get in. They win a game, then lose the next one. In the draft lottery standings, they would finish 13th at best. They would have, at best, a 4.8 percent chance to pick in the top four and otherwise pick 13th or 14th.
By contrast, if the season ended today, the Bucks would have over 76 percent odds to fall ninth or 10th in the draft. They would have 20.2 percent odds to go top-four. Their final position, of course, is tied to Atlanta's swap rights between Milwaukee's and New Orleans' first-rounders. Realistically, though, that Pelicans pick is all but ensured a decent chance to fall 1-4 as well. Â
Granted, current standings are unlikely to hold. Let's assume the Bucks pass the free-falling Bulls. First team out of the Play-in? 13.9 percent odds to pick in the top four. Make the Play-in but lose right away? Top four odds of up to 9.4 percent, with the most likely selection falling at No. 11.Â
The differences aren't negligible. Anything can happen. Just ask Dallas last year.
Here's how that whole discussion relates to Giannis and his Bucks future. Scraping into a doomed Play-in exit would give Milwaukee less chance to turn around and offer him a halfway decent draft pick as a building block for the future. Ok, Giannis, it didn't work out this year, but here's a reason to stick around. That asset could be used to draft a player the team really likes. It could also be an extremely valuable trade chip.Â
It's not nothing, either, if limping into the 10-seed or accepting a lost season is only the difference between picking 10th and 13th.Â
These considerations only apply, of course, if it becomes clear, as it seemed not long ago, that this team has no chance to contend. The Bucks aren't out of it, but they don't have a margin for error. A bad losing streak out of the break should force them to review their full range of options. A frustrated Giannis and not even a consolation draft prize to offer would truly be the ultimate catastrophe.