The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade discussions are, unfortunately for anyone reading this, not likely to stop any time soon. Does it make you feel any better to know that, if the Bucks do trade Giannis, they might be real beneficiaries?
That's what Tom Haberstroh of Yahoo Sports argued (or at least floated the idea of) on The Big Number podcast recently:
"The superstar trade paradox... The rebuilding team that sells the superstar, oftentimes does better than the team that acquired the superstar... You think those teams add those MVP candidates to their squad as the missing piece on a superteam and they're just going to be cooking with gas, but I looked at the 11... Superstar, kitchen-sink trades where there's multiple first-round picks and players going into a deal... Of those 11 trades, superstar trades... Only two of them resulted in a championship, only two of 11 resulted in a championship..."
First of all, are we sure two out of 11 is so bad? If a team knows there's about a 19 percent chance they win the title if they make a trade... I think a lot of teams would make that trade. That's almost one-in-five odds! I digress, because the Bucks would obviously not be that team in a Giannis trade. They would be in the "better" position, a position of instantly having a cache of draft picks and young talent with a chance to usher in a real rebuild.
But this is where I struggle to agree with Haberstroh or say that his analysis is "right." I understand the argument here. But. Telling Bucks fans the team should trade Giannis because, "Well, actually, superstar trades are often more advantageous for the team that trades the superstar, so just wait a few years and you'll be singing a different tune, heh," is not a compelling argument to make to fans who might lose their superstar player.
So, to answer my question from the opening paragraph... No, it probably doesn't make Bucks fans feel better.
Also, potential fan revolt aside, even if trading Giannis is the "right" thing to do based on historical trends, there are more variables at play here — including the Bucks' likely inability to maximize those draft picks like Oklahoma City did when they "sold" on their core in 2019. Do you believe the Bucks would find their Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren with whatever picks they receive in a Giannis trade? If so, then I respect your undying optimism even while being faced with difficult truths.
Trading Giannis would be a monstrous blow for Bucks fans
This is the most important aspect of any potential trade. If the team deals Giannis, it shatters the relationship between franchise and city. It wouldn't be a Luka-level breakup, but it wouldn't be cordial, either, that's for sure.
If you can guarantee that trading Giannis would bring high-level team success and another homegrown star via draft who would embrace the city and steal Milwaukee's heart like Giannis did, then yeah, the team should start taking offers for Giannis tomorrow. But of course you can't guarantee that, and with the Bucks' recent draft history, you can't even say it with a straight face.
There are far more feelings involved in NBA transactions than we like to remember, and the argument that whichever team trades for Giannis might not win a championship and that's why the Bucks should ship him off will provoke a very strong feeling from Bucks fans... Anger.