A cryptic deer emoji posted without context in an Instagram comment shouldn't be enough to move markets on its own. And yet, here we are. Because the way the Bucks view Tyler Herro will go on to decide how the entire Giannis trade saga goes.
To recall, after Milwaukee native Tyler Herro posted a workout photo captioned with two hourglass emojis, his brother Austin responded in the comments with a video of a deer. None of this means anything is confirmed, obviously, but all of it matters all the same. Players and their inner circles never drop these types of hints this publicly by accident, and the NBA world noticed immediately.
Assuming this means Herro is headed to Wisconsin, therein lies the question: if Herro is certainly going to be part of a trade with Miami, do Jon Horst and company value him and see him in the team's future going forward?
Or is he more of a piece they would like to flip? If it's the former, Miami pretty much has this in the bag among other Giannis suitors, which, according to NBA insider Sam Amick (subscription required), include the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, and, surprisingly, the Orlando Magic once again.
The Bucks' view on Tyler Herro could make all the difference
While nothing concrete has been reported about how Horst views Herro, the Bucks have made clear in the past that their overarching stance centers on maximizing the return on a potential Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. This should mean that it's at the very least likely that they view Tyler Herro primarily as a valuable, high-value trade chip rather than a long-term franchise cornerstone.
If Jon Horst views Herro as a player they'd extend and build around, then the Miami package becomes enormously compelling. The Heat's reported offer on the table includes the likes of Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and multiple draft picks and pick swaps. That's a real haul that suggests Miami is willing to play ball with the Bucks on a genuine offer.
Ware is a 21-year-old center with starter upside. Jaquez is a cheap, versatile wing. The picks give Milwaukee options. And a healthy Herro, coming home, with something to prove on a one-year showcase deal, could be exactly the kind of high-upside gamble a rebuilding team should take.
But if the Bucks see Herro as a flip, everything changes. A $33 million expiring guard is tradeable, but his value at the deadline depends entirely on how he performs, and banking a rebuild on an injury-prone player's showcase season is a specific kind of optimism.
Miami was once upon a time viewed as the frontrunner in the Giannis sweepstakes, with the Heat's front office historically enamored by the possibility of pairing Giannis with Bam Adebayo. Their attraction to Antetokounmpo has been something of an open secret for years -- a frontcourt combination that would be terrifying in the East for the next five years, after all.
But that frontrunner status only holds if Milwaukee genuinely wants what Miami is offering. The moment Horst decides he'd rather have Minnesota's core pieces, for instance, then Miami's position fades.
The Herro question is really a question about Milwaukee's vision. Are they rebuilding around a returning hometown star with star potential and a homecoming narrative? Or are they collecting picks and young players and treating every asset the same way?
In a trade market this fluid, with this many moving pieces, the Bucks' answer to the Herro question just might decide everything else.
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