One devastating injury set Bucks back a half-decade

Torn Achilles or not, the Milwaukee Bucks might have seriously considered moving on from Damian Lillard last offseason after another first-round exit. That's not revisionist history. In an article for The Athletic following the Bucks' elimination, team reporters Eric Nehm and Sam Amick posited as much. 

Having Lillard healthy against the Pacers was unlikely to change the outcome of the series, though it could have made it more competitive. For whatever reason, the pairing with Giannis Antetokounmpo did not work as hoped. 

As reality played out, tearing his Achilles supplied the impetus for waive-and-stretching Lillard to clear cap space to sign Myles Turner. That decision has aged as poorly as possible. Lillard's money is is on the books until 2030. Turner has underwhelmed. Amid bitter drama and a dismal season, Giannis has one foot and four toes out the door. 

The injury left the Bucks feeling as though they had little choice, but the future could look a lot less bleak had Lillard stayed healthy, paving the way for a haul of assets in a blockbuster trade last summer.

Damian Lillard trade would set up the Bucks for a better future

What would a return package look like? Set to turn 34 last July, Lillard had two years and $112.5 million remaining on his contract. He was coming off a season averaging 24.9 points and seven assists per game, an All-NBA level of production. 

Whatever the specifics, the Bucks could have gotten something decent, a combination of decent NBA talent and draft capital. No doubt they would have sought a replacement, if not directly in the trade then in a separate move. Perhaps they still make the mistake of signing Turner.

Even in that scenario, however, some form of draft compensation for Lillard would have been likely, improving their future outlook. Whoever they brought in to replace Dame wasn't going to save the season, but that salary would be movable. Lillard's dead money will burden the books through 2029-30. They can't turn that money into another player or move off it for draft picks. 

It's just there, burning a hole through the franchise wallet, sure to be brought up every offseason to remind fans that the Bucks' spending power is limited. 

Adding Myles Turner only compounded the disaster

Turner's contract is nearly as restrictive: one year down, three years and $83.5 million to go. Maybe the Bucks sign Turner regardless of Lillard's injury, but having more flexibility without Lillard's dead cap hit would change the calculus. Perhaps it would have enabled them to pursue a genuine star, not a player in the sub-All-Star tier. 

What if they traded Dame back to Portland, where he signed after being waived, in exchange for some of their upcoming draft picks owned by the Trail Blazers? Jerami Grant would likely be part of that deal, but is his bloated contract worse than Turner's? Not really. 

Even if the 2025-26 campaign went just as poorly, leading to Giannis' departure this offseason, the Bucks would have a better path to legitimately tank for a year or two if need be. Without control of their own draft picks, they can't conscionably adopt that approach. 

Admittedly, such speculation is blatant coping. At the same time, it is undeniably pertinent. Without Lillard's devastating injury, it's difficult to imagine a worse scenario than the one clouding the Bucks' future for years to come.