Once the smoke of the past three playoff flameouts clears, it will be time to look inward for the Milwaukee Bucks. And these three things will have everything to do with how this offseason goes: What happens to their coaching situation? What happens to Giannis Antetokounmpo? And what happens to what little pieces they have left?
Sent home early and left to answer uncomfortable questions, the Milwaukee Bucks are in a spot of mediocrity that has felt more familiar and comfortable than ever in the Giannis Antetokounmpo era. A third straight playoff flameout means this summer isn’t just about tweaks. It’s about course correction, possibly from the ground up.
Everything is on the table: coaching, roster construction, even the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo. But before any big moves can happen, three key dominoes will determine the direction of Milwaukee’s offseason.
Doc Rivers: Does he stay or does he go?
When the Milwaukee Bucks hired Doc Rivers midseason last year, it was supposed to stabilize a contending roster. It didn’t.
Immediately after swapping Adrian Griffin for the supposedly more established talents of the veteran Rivers, Milwaukee promptly went 17-19 in the remainder of their first season under Rivers and looked uninspired throughout their first-round loss to Indiana.
Even back then, it was a series marked by questionable rotations, delayed adjustments and wasted timeouts. But Giannis Antetokounmpo was injured, Lillard was mostly hobbled and fighting to get back to his old self, and Middleton's all-world shot-creation was enough to win them two games, so hopes were high that it was more a health issue than anything else.
It might be the same thing this time. The Milwaukee Bucks simply were not at full strength. But we all saw how the last game of the series went down, and how the Bucks' best lineup choked a seven-point lead with 35 seconds left. This reality should have already set in for Milwaukee Bucks management if it hasn't yet: under Rivers, a fully healthy Bucks squad might not have been any better.
Coaching sets your floor, as we saw under Mike Budenholzer and Adrian Griffin. But it also firmly determines where your ceiling is. And the fact of the matter is that the Bucks might have finally reached theirs.
Does Giannis Antetokounmpo still want this?
Whether or not the front office believes Doc Rivers can lead this team forward is the first call that has to be made. His contract runs through 2026, but money shouldn’t be the reason to stay committed. If Rivers is retained, expect some continuity and minor roster tweaks. But if they move on, it signals a willingness to reset not just the game plan, but the culture.
Which brings us to the second, but certainly not the least, of the factors governing Milwaukee's postseason. Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t asked out — yet. But the Bucks are running out of rope.
He missed the entire series against Indiana with a calf injury in 2024, but Milwaukee’s deeper issue is philosophical: are they still a title team, or just pretending to be one? Since winning the title in 2021, the Bucks haven’t gotten out of the second round. Giannis has openly said he wants to win now and be part of a franchise that shares that urgency.
The Lillard gamble was about keeping Giannis happy. It hasn’t worked — not with Lillard's body breaking down and the supporting cast aging. If Giannis decides he has had enough, the Milwaukee Bucks will be forced to think the unthinkable. We all know there's no shortage of suitors waiting to make their offers, after all.
What happens with KPJ, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton?
If Giannis Antetokounmpo stays, then it's business as usual. That means going all in to try to improve around the margins once the coaching situation is sorted.
And that's just the thing that makes this all so daunting: the Milwaukee Bucks have little flexibility, if at all. Their cap sheet is bloated, even if they're no longer a second-apron team. That makes the decisions by Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton even more important.
All three have player options, and each one represents a different pivot point. KPJ was a surprise contributor late in the year and could look for a payday elsewhere.
Portis is a fan favorite and Sixth Man of the Year finalist, but if he opts out, the Bucks may not be able to replace him. If he opts in, they could look to trade him. Connaughton is among the longest-tenured Bucks outside of Giannis but has declined sharply — if he stays, it clogs a roster spot; if he leaves, it opens a small window for change.
Everything else — trades, extensions, system tweaks — comes after these three questions get answered. The Milwaukee Bucks are stuck between trying to stretch out a closing window and blowing the whole thing up.
That choice starts now.
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