Unless Nico Harris is secretly the Milwaukee Bucks' general manager, they should net a solid haul when the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes inevitably commence this summer. Uncertainty over the future of the NBA draft lottery, however, could prevent them from getting every last drop of value.Â
Owners are expected to approve the new format during the vote, which would discourage tanking and increase the upside of draft capital for most teams. Here's the provision the Bucks should pay special attention to: the agreement expires after the 2029 season, meaning that everything could change again. All the uncertainty could scare trade suitors away from sending out high-value first-rounders from 2030 and beyond.
That's bad news for Milwaukee, as the most prized draft capital in a Giannis deal will likely be backloaded far out into the future.Â
Lottery uncertainty could affect Giannis trade packages
According to NBA insider Jake Fischer, at least one general manager is committed to keeping those picks under lock and key for the time being. "I'm not trading any picks beyond 2029," Fischer says the GM told him (subscription required). Uncertainty tends to create indecision and, ultimately, inertia.Â
That's significant for the Bucks. In stipulating any incoming draft capital, they should insist on at least one or two in the long run. Giannis is still in his prime, but he won't be forever. The goal is to capitalize on potentially high draft picks during any retooling period following the receiving team's contending window. The farther out, the better. Even under the new lottery rules, a bad team's picks remain extremely valuable.Â
Other organizations adopting the anonymous GM's approach could shrink the Bucks' pool of suitors, weeding out those unwilling to pay the price of admission. Even frontrunners like Miami might hold more tightly to its own first-round picks from 2030 to 2033. Without at least one of those picks in a Giannis package, plus possible swaps, the Heat's offer becomes less appealing.Â
No one knows what the system will look like in three years
Of course, there is risk involved for Milwaukee as well. What if future rule changes somehow devalue those later picks? No one knows what will happen. That's especially uncomfortable, though, for the team giving up the draft picks, which, if kept, could yield the next face of the franchise.Â
Even if teams are willing to surrender far-future picks, doing so could make them less likely to provide quality assets in the rest of the trade package. Think of it this way: you'd be less eager to feed more coins to a vending machine without knowing whether you just put in a nickel or a quarter.
That's not to say the Bucks can't drive up Antetokounmpo's value in a bidding war and land an excellent return, but the murky future of the NBA draft lottery means that they may have to settle for less than the max.Â
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