After months and months of investigation, the NBA finally announced an update in the cap circumvention allegations against Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers: the league has found no evidence of wrongdoing. It's a major announcement that might have the Bucks feeling hopeful in their own investigation regarding Gary Trent Jr's new contract, but Milwaukee might not be as lucky. Unlike Kawhi's case, the Bucks and Trent Jr have a very clear history of signing contracts that varied wildly from his market value at the time.
The Bucks aren't guaranteed a pass
Although there was plenty of circumstantial evidence against Leonard regarding his "no-show" endorsement deals, the NBA still hasn't come down with a punishment for him or the Clippers. However, it's worth noting that Leonard has practically always signed around market value with the Clippers. He received a max contact in 2019, then a max extension in 2021, and finally a 3-year/$149 million extension in 2024.
That last extension was less than his max possible deal, both in terms of years and annual salary, but pretty accurate to his market value coming off an injury-riddled postseason. On the other hand, Trent's dealings with the Bucks have been a lot more suspect. It doesn't help that the Bucks' current roster battles mean they had no reason to even re-sign Trent in the first place.
Trent's first time signing an extension in Milwaukee was in 2025, when he inked a 2-year/$7.5 million extension that was generally considered below his market value. At the time, he was coming off a solid first season as a Buck including shooting 43% from three in the playoffs. And now he has signed a 4-year/$64 million extension after a career-worst season, largely considered one of the worst overpays in the league.
Milwaukee could be in trouble based on future precedent
Kawhi's case was a relatively new situation in NBA history, but Trent's situation rings very similar to Joe Smith and the Timberwolves in 2000. Like Trent, Smith originally joined a new team and stayed with them on surprisingly small deals to establish his Bird rights. Smith never got to the point of signing a big extension because his scheme was caught prior to that lucrative step.
Trent obviously did get his extension, regardless of how puzzling the move was from the Bucks perspective. But in Smith's case, the NBA responded by stripping Minnesota of 5 first-round picks. That price would be unbearable for the Bucks but they now run that risk if the allegations of cap circumvention for Trent are true.
Hopefully the allegations are false and Trent can make his statement early on the court with a bounce-back season. But if he and the Bucks are guilty of prior agreement on his new contract, both parties could be staring down the barrel of a hefty punishment from the league. Just because Kawhi and the Clippers haven't been punished yet doesn't mean that the Bucks and Trent are guaranteed to get off scot-free either.
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