Looming expansion draft poses gut-wrenching Myles Turner question

The NBA is plodding closer and closer to expansion, and so is an uncomfortable Myles Turner decision for the Milwaukee Bucks. To help source their rosters, the expansion squads would draft from a pool of current NBA players. If precedent holds, each existing team will be able to protect up to eight of its own players. Would Turner be included for the Bucks? 

The 2028-29 season is the rumored target date to inaugurate the expansion squads, per ESPN's Tim Bontemps and Bobby Marks. If Milwaukee doesn't offload Turner before then, whether to include him among its protected players could be an agonizing bit of business. 

Bucks could face distasteful dilemma at expansion draft

Of course, it's possible that any decision ends up being a moot point. Turner may not be here even next season, especially if a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade this summer triggers further moves. On the other hand, maybe he bounces back and becomes the valuable cog the Bucks anticipated, not a burden to let loose as draft fodder. 

Otherwise, Turner has a $29 million player option in 2028-29, which, if he does not return to elite form, he would be wise to pick up. With Turner under contract ahead of an expansion draft, the front office would have a decision to make on his protection status.

Turner has been mediocre in his Bucks debut, averaging 11.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks on 44 percent shooting. The 3-point stroke is there, but everything else has been a letdown. By and large, it is the worst season in Turner's 11-year career since he was a rookie. 

Two years from now, he will be entering his age-32 season. Perhaps at that point, the Bucks would jump at the chance to recoup any of their investment, making a shrewd but embarrassing choice to leave Turner unprotected. The ugly downside in that case is that they would be letting him walk for nothing except salary relief. 

With Damian Lillard's dead money clamped on the books through 2030, a result of the Turner signing, that would be a hard pill to swallow.

This isn't a question the Bucks thought they would be asking

That isn't even the worst stinger in the premise. The prospect of protecting Turner or not shouldn't be a question at all. After the Bucks poured $109 million into his pockets last summer, it shouldn't be a thought. Of course they would protect Turner in an expansion draft. 

The most gut-wrenching part of it all is that, even as a hypothetical, it's a reasonable question to ask. In the frontcourt, the Bucks are already leaning into a younger combination of Jericho Sims, Pete Nance, and Ousmane Dieng. The team just converted Nance to a two-year standard contract. If they re-sign Sims and Dieng, available minutes could dwindle quickly. Turner could end up completely out of place as soon as next season.

And yet, the prospect of moving on from him in an expansion draft is painful. Doing so would require the front office to admit bare-faced defeat, kicking their prized acquisition to the curb for nothing in return. One way or another, that day is one the Bucks would love to avoid.