The Milwaukee Bucks nearly bet their distant and immediate future on Deandre Ayton. Instead, they landed Myles Turner, and it’s all thanks to the Indiana Pacers, who made an absolute fumble of a move just days removed from their impressive run to Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
According to reports, Milwaukee’s interest in signing Ayton after Brook Lopez's departure was real, despite years of well-documented, league-wide concerns about his motor, maturity, and defensive engagement.
Let's get it out of the way early: Deandre Ayton has never been a reliable anchor. He was certainly not one in Phoenix, not one in Portland, and was inevitably not going to be one for the Milwaukee Bucks, whose defense has revolved around elite rim protection for half a decade.
Pacers bungled their offseason, and by doing so, saved the Bucks
The Bucks were in a precarious situation this offseason after losing Brook Lopez, the heart and soul of their defensive identity for the past seven years, in free agency.
And so, despite Ayton's reputation, there was a tangible buzz around the association that the Bucks were eyeing Ayton hard before they waived Damian Lillard to clear cap space for Turner.
According to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, the Bucks were engaged in discussions about signing Ayton after his contract buyout with Portland.
It could’ve happened. It might’ve happened. But then the Pacers made the decision that changed everything. And now, Ayton is in Los Angeles, having signed with the Lakers.
Instead of retaining their longest-tenured player and all-time leader in blocks, Indiana lowballed him in free agency. And Turner, it seems, responded in kind. That gave the Bucks all the opening they needed to swoop in, offer real money, and secure the best-case scenario: a center who fits their defensive identity and can space the floor.
None of this is to say that Ayton is the worst center in the league. In reality, he's far from it, and this writer has always been of the opinion that the lion's share of his reputation has been unfair and undeserved.
While box score watchers will look at his worst moments in the playoffs, the stats will show that he’s a solid scorer with touch around the rim and good size. He has a lethal hook shot in his bag that's good for 58 percent efficiency. He's also in the 91st percentile as a putback scorer per NBA.com/stats and the 77th percentile as a defensive rebounder. He's always just been a finesse scorer rather than a bruiser.
It's always been his defense that left much to be desired. According to PBP Stats, the Portland Trail Blazers were giving up 113.2 points per 100 possessions whenever Ayton was on the bench. When their starting center played, they bled 118.9 points per 100.
In the end, Indiana’s mistake saved Milwaukee from itself.
Turner may not have Ayton’s upside as a post scorer, but he’s everything the Bucks actually need: an elite drop defender with size and mobility, a proven shot-blocker, and a floor spacer with real chemistry potential next to Giannis. Per CtG, opponent efficiency goes down by -3.4 points per 100 when he plays (79th percentile), which makes him a seamless plug-in to the Brook Lopez role. And the best part is that he’s only 29.
There’s no telling how close the Bucks came to handing the keys to Ayton. But thanks to the Pacers’ baffling misstep, they don’t have to wonder. They got the right big man to get Giannis to commit at least a few more years, and they didn’t even have to overthink it.