Just a week ago, before the trade deadline, there seemed to be a wide open opportunity for Pete Nance with the Milwaukee Bucks. He was coming off back-to-back outings of 15-plus points, averaging 8.6 points in his last eight games. Call his first crack at the rotation a success. Converting Nance from a two-way contract to standard one seemed like a real possibility and a well-deserved reward.
Suddenly, that no longer appears likely. The Bucks filled their open spot on the 15-man roster with Cam Thomas off the buyout market. Then, on Wednesday in Orlando, deadline addition Ousmane Dieng ate up Nance's typical share of minutes, cashing 17 points in 23 minutes. As the Bucks attempt to see what they have in the lottery pick, it's hard to see Dieng ceding ground if he continues to play sound basketball.
For Nance, sticking on a two-way deal now seems all but certain, limiting his availability the rest of the way and pushing any contract talk to the summer.
Dieng's arrival likely put Nance negotiations on hold
Perhaps the signs already pointed that way before Nance played just four minutes against the Magic. His playing time had already been cut in half in his last game, Dieng's debut. Then, in a radio interview earlier on Tuesday, General Manager Jon Horst implied that whether to secure Nance on a longer-term contract, as the Bucks did with former two-way prospects AJ Green and Ryan Rollins, could be a summer decision.
"Whether or not that's something we do before the end of the season, or we talk about in the summer, we'll work through that with Pete and his agents. But he's absolutely earned the opportunity to play real NBA minutes up to this point."
It's not too difficult to read between the lines. As far as rotation priority, "up to this point" may be as far as Nance's season goes. Players on two-way contracts are limited to 50 active games per year. Nance has already played in 22 games and been active nine other times. With 30 games to go, he is only eligible to suit up for 19 of them. If the Bucks make the Play-in, he won't be able to participate; two-way players aren't eligible for the playoffs.
Moreover, it's worth noting that leaving Nance on a two-way deal could also make it more difficult to retain him this offseason, when he becomes a free agent. Milwaukee will still have some leverage, but other teams would be able to offer him a contract.
With as much potential as Nance has shown, it's a disappointing, even frustrating, development to his individual arc. The Milwaukee Bucks can't let him be the one that got away.
Indeed, Nance has shown himself to be the type of floor-spacing, versatile big the team craves. A natural four at 6-foot-9 and 225 pounds, he can also feature as a small-ball five or switch onto small forwards. As Horst observes, Nance has crushed it in the G League and made enough of his chances in the NBA to earn a legitimate shot.
What works against him in Dieng's case, however, is that both players derive from a similar prototype. Although Dieng has less bulk, potentially making Nance a better fit for the five, he is a bit quicker on his feet. Offensively, Dieng boasts comparable range (as he showcased Wednesday by going 5-for-8 from deep) and a superior handle.
The newcomer also warrants a closer look as a former 11th overall pick. Although he never panned out for the Thunder, the tools are there. Dieng, still only 22, never got a full shot on an Oklahoma City squad loaded with quality role players.
Nance, by contrast, is older for a prospect (26) and broke into the league as an undrafted free agent, not a lottery selection. In the eyes of NBA front offices, raw talent dies hard.
What does it all mean for his future with the franchise? Big picture, it shouldn't prevent him from signing a longer-term contract in the offseason, though letting him become a free agent does complicate matters somewhat. Could the Bucks still waive someone else on a standard deal (sorry, Andre Jackson Jr.) to clear a spot before the two-way conversion deadline on March 4? It's possible.
Otherwise, in the short term, Nance will all but surely see fewer opportunities down the stretch and miss out on a promotion to the 15-man roster. A fast-track path has hit the brakes until summer. It's disappointing and perhaps unfair, but we'll just have to wait.